Braves

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Atlanta Braves News and Views

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This is the time of year when non-playoff teams clear space on their rosters in order to create flexibility for the off-season, and according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America, the Braves began that process today be outrighting relievers Jorge Campillo and Buddy Carlyle and outfielder Reid Gorecki.  All three opted to become free agents instead of remaining in the organization. The 40-man roster is now down to 38 players (with Jordan Schafer being activated from the 60-day DL).

Gorecki's release is little surprise; he's been a solid Triple-A player, but doesn't look like much more than a fifth outfielder (at best) at the major-league level.  I have to say I am more unsure about the decisions to let Campillo and Carlyle walk.  As I wrote in my posts on Jorge and Buddy, their value to the Braves was entirely tied up in their abilities to make full recoveries from their respective injuries.  Clearly the Braves feel that they won't return to full strength, which would indeed be reason to let them walk. However, with those two gone and Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano potentially departing, the Braves now have just two pitchers (outside of the six starters) with more than 150 innings of major-league experience (those are Peter Moylan and Jo-Jo Reyes, if you were wondering).

I am in no position to question the front office's decision on Campillo or Carlyle since I have no information about their health, but it does mean that Frank Wren has a big task ahead of him rebuilding the bullpen--not just at the back end, but also in terms of middle relief and quality depth.   - [Read more]

In spite of a disappointing season overall for the Braves in 2009, there were several players who exceeded expectations, and lefty Eric O'Flaherty was certainly not least among them.  I was an O'Flaherty fan from the time we claimed him off waivers, since he was young, had good stuff, and had a history of getting left-handed hitters out.  That's a pretty good skill set for a bullpen's designated LOOGY, but even the most bullish predictions for O'Flaherty probably didn't see him replacing Will Ohman as a valuable all-purpose reliever who just happened to be left-handed.

O'Flaherty keeps the ball on the ground (1.98 GB/FB ratio), and misses enough bats to keep hitters honest.  He absolutely embarrassed lefty hitters in 2009, to the tune of a .215/.270/.290 line, but he also held righties to a .676 OPS, making him much more than just a generic left-handed specialist.  Credit Frank Wren for picking up a very handy bullpen piece for nothing more than a waiver claim, and be excited that O'Flaherty's services will cost the Braves just $400,000 again next year.

The bottom line: EOF joins Peter Moylan as perhaps the only two known quantities going forward to the 2010 bullpen.  Since neither blows hitters away, they form an underrated tandem, but reliable middle- to late-inning relievers can be very difficult to come by.
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While many members of the Braves' bullpen wore down as the season progressed, Peter Moylan did exactly the opposite, struggling early and finding his stride late in the year.  Much of that improvement likely has to do with distancing himself further from his Tommy John surgery last season, and once he got going, he was valuable indeed.  Moylan had surgery on May 8, 2008, and after he was 13 months--a typical full recovery period out from the procedure, batters hit just .234/.306/.310 against him and he posted a 1.75 ERA after June 8.  Even including the portion of the season where he was presumably still getting his strength back, his GB/FB ratio rose to 3.20, as if his 2.48 mark in 2007 wasn't impressive enough.  His fastball velocity was down a couple MPH from its pre-surgery levels, but we don't have data to say whether that improved over the course of the season.  The fact that his slider velocity was actually better suggests that his slower fastball isn't necessarily a side effect of surgery.

Moylan isn't a conventional closer; he's not going to come in and blow away hitters like Rafael Soriano often did in 2009.  That said, Moylan is plenty effective, and he even has the added advantage of versatility: he can come in to bail his 'pen mates out of an eighth-inning jam and then finish the game, whereas many closers struggle when they don't get to enter the game with a clean slate.  He can also throw multiple innings if Bobby Cox can bring himself to let Moylan pick up a two-inning save.  Should Rafael Soriano and/or Mike Gonzalez walk this winter, Moylan could get an extended look in a closing role.

Of course, making Moylan the closer removes a very valuable middle-inning option, someone that can come in and get a double-play grounder in a tight spot or give you two innings in the event of a short start.  Ideally, the Braves would bring in a more traditional fireman for the ninth inning, and continue to let Moylan be the bullpen's durable utilityman.

The bottom line: Moylan's strikeout and save totals might not be eye-popping next year, but he could become the 'pen's most valuable reliever given a full season at 100% strength.
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In all the discussions about trading a starting pitcher this winter, it's often been forgotten that Tim Hudson's option for 2010 is a mutual option (or at least it's been taken for granted that Huddy would exercise his half of the option.  All the talk over the last few weeks has been that both sides are amiable to exercising the option if not even working out some sort of contract extension.

But now, Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com is telling us that Hudson may decline his half of the option and test his value on the free-agent market.  There's really no reason why he shouldn't do so, except if he truly wants to stay in Atlanta.  Could he be using this as a bargaining ploy with the Braves?  The Braves have five days after the conclusion of the World Series to decide whether to pick up their half of the option, which they almost certainly will.  Hudson will then have until ten days after the Fall Classic to announce his choice.  One way or another, our starting pitching picture could get a lot less crowded if he chooses to go elsewhere.

In other potentially bad news, longtime scouting director Roy Clark has departed to take an assistant GM position in the Nationals' front office.  Clark has directed Braves' drafts for the past eleven years, and those drafts have kept the talent pipeline flowing.  Hopefully, Clark's departure doesn't have an effect on the Braves' notoriously excellent scouting system.
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Third in an occasional series of analyses of the Braves' 2009 campaign, with an eye toward 2010. The first was on the end to our season, and the second was about the pitching staff. Part three is about the team we started with on Opening Day, and how different it was from the team we ended with last week.

By the end of the year, The Braves were a very different team than they trotted out on Opening Day. Most of the change, however, was on the field rather than on the mound. The additions of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson were important, but on the whole the pitching staff didn't change that much from wire to wire. Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan, and Eric O'Flaherty all had at least 77 appearances; Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, and Derek Lowe all had at least 32 starts, and Kenshin Kawakami had 25.

On the other hand, our lineup changed from this to this:

• Adam LaRoche is a free agent, and in my view not worth signing -- we can pretty well guess he's going to be terrible in the first half again. So we'll need a first baseman.
  
• Kelly Johnson's role on the team is uncertain: his trade value is fairly low, but Martin Prado is clearly the second baseman. He's worth keeping around because Chipper needs a caddy; at this point, on this team, he's a bench player, albeit a well-qualified one.
  
• Matt Diaz has, yet again, earned himself a starting role -- preferably one that would prevent Garret Anderson from reprising his own. But Church is like an outfield Kelly Johnson: a nice spare part, but not an ideal starter. So we'll need a right fielder.
• Nate McLouth: after having been one of the worst center fielders in baseball last year, according to both UZR and Plus/Minus, McLouth was very slightly above average this year. He was also slightly above average with the bat, 11th in OPS out of 23 full-time center fielders in baseball this year. His contract runs through 2011, with a 2012 team option. He's a fine solution. If/when Jordan Schafer's ready to take over, he can slide over to a corner and platoon with lefty-killer Matt Diaz or whoever winds up in right.

Furman Bisher just retired. I don't have a lot of nice things to say, so I'm not going to say much. He's 90, but unlike, say, 81-year old Vin Scully, I don't think there are a lot of people in Atlanta begging him not to retire. He's an old guy whom baseball's internationalization and technology long since left behind -- who nearly outlived paper journalism itself -- but who nonetheless continued to write, week after week. A dogged purist, without question. He gave his professional career to Atlanta, and in his prime he styled words with grace. Past his prime, he remained an almost matchless institutional memory of sports, having personally witnessed nearly a century's worth of happenings.

Other elegies will be more complimentary than mine; I came of age long after Bisher's prime, and am part of a generation whom Bisher never seemed fully to understand or to feel comfortable with. In my opinion, he hung around for far too long. Yet I envy him his long life and his success in spending his life doing what he loved: writing about sports. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is a shell of the newspaper it once was, the paper I grew up reading, the paper Bisher wrote for decade after decade, and his retirement diminishes it yet more.

Enjoy the sunset, Furman. You got to go out your way.
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Can you name the Braves' rookie with the highest strikeout rate in 2009?  The title of the post probably gives away the answer, but be honest: you were thinking Tommy Hanson.  Hanson has stolen the spotlight for the Braves this season, but it's difficult to overstate the contributions and progress made by Hanson's close friend and longtime roommate Kris Medlen.  Medlen may not look like much at 5'10" and 190 pounds, but he's got it where it counts with three major-league caliber pitches that he mixes well.  Since he lacks any one blowaway pitch, he's often been characterized as a control-reliant pitcher, but interestingly he's actually looked more a dominating if somewhat wild at the major-league level (3.99 BB/9 is fairly high, but he's also kept his K rate up over 9.5).

I remain incredibly intrigued at Medlen's potential as a starter; some scouts cite his small frame as a reason to be concerned about his durability over the course of a 200-inning workload.  However, he's got a stress-free delivery, and his broad arsenal seems like it could pass muster in a major-league rotation.  I've mentioned this in comments before, but prior to the season, Medlen's #2 PECOTA comparable was another smallish, converted position player: Roy Oswalt.  Of course expecting Medlen to become the next Oswalt would be unrealistic, but I think the point is that there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about Medlen's chances to be a useful mid-rotation arm.  Sure, it's lovely to have reliable relievers, but when you could have a reliable starter instead, you take the starter any day.

As crowded as the Braves' rotation might look these days, I worry that if Medlen gets too accustomed to relieving, it'll be that much more work to have him join the rotation someday.  Still, it seems obvious that his near-term role will be at the back end of the bullpen, and there's little reason not to expect him to have plenty of value in that capacity.  Still, he's the reason why I wouldn't hesitate to trade a starting pitcher this winter; while some want to keep all six to maintain depth, I'd argue that Medlen steps right in as a new sixth option for the rotation.

The bottom line: He'll likely spend another year as a versatile, high-leverage reliever in 2010, but there's still hope that he could turn into a valuable starter someday; look for him to get an extended shot if trades and/or injuries deplete the rotation at any point next season.  Either way, don't let Tommy Hanson's shining star blind you to Medlen's considerable potential.

Second in an occasional series of analyses of the Braves' 2009 campaign, with an eye toward 2010. The first was on the end to our season -- a six-game losing streak that made the long offseason a lot harder for fans to swallow. Part two is about our starting rotation, once again the best in the majors.

It's too bad the Braves weren't able to make it into the playoffs, but no one will blame the starting rotation. First in the majors in ERA, second in FIP, second in innings pitched, third fewest homers allowed, third in OPS against, third in WHIP -- it was inarguably one of the best, and arguably the single best, staff in all of baseball. It was an especially impressive showing for a rotation that was 20th in baseball in ERA last year despite the best efforts of Jair Jurrjens, and which hadn't led the league in ERA since having led every single year from 1992-2002. Roger McDowell was hired to be the next Leo Mazzone: his pitchers' performance this year is a strong indication that he was a good choice.

McDowell has to be mentioned, because as good as the pitchers were, no one would confuse any of them with 1992-2002 Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, or Tom Glavine. Not one pitcher on the roster has any Cy Youngs on the shelf, and only Tim Hudson (#2 in 2000, when Pedro won it going away, and Hudson had an ERA nearly two and a half runs higher than Petey) and Derek Lowe (#3 in 2002, behind Zito and Pedro) have ever even received consideration. Instead, other than Lowe, the staff collectively overachieved. As Tom has covered, while Lowe drastically underperformed his FIP, Jair Jurrjens even more drastically overperformed his own, as did Tommy Hanson. And Javier Vazquez produced the best season of his career, setting career highs in ERA, ERA+, and K/BB, while coming within one of his career high in wins and within three of his career high in strikeouts.

Lowe's performance was disappointing, but thanks to the stellar years enjoyed by Vazquez, Hanson, and Jurrjens, the Braves were able to hide him in the back end of the rotation. As I've written, I'm extremely concerned about him for the duration of his contract if he's unable to bring his strikeouts back in line with his career numbers, but if this year was just an aberration, it more than evened out thanks to his rotationmates' success. The rest of the back end of the rotation was similarly strong: after an unsuccessful last audition for Jo-Jo Reyes, and a middling performance by Medlen, who found much greater success in the pen, Kenshin Kawakami and Tim Hudson combined to produce #3 starter numbers while being effectively #5 on the starter depth chart.

Kawakami was maligned early in the year because of a poor April and the even poorer early performance of Garret Anderson, because fans presumed that Frank Wren made a choice to pay Kawakami rather than pay a slugger. While the acquisition of Nate McLouth and trade of Jeff Francoeur substantially improved our offense, the critics had a point: this year, pitching was not our problem. Still, Kawakami more than earned his money, as Tom has written. Next year, Jurrjens and Hanson are both likely to fall back to earth a bit, while Kawakami's likely to perform at a similar level -- somewhere around a 4.00 ERA through somewhere around 30 starts. (I never get tired of pointing this out, but when I translated his Japanese stats to an American context, I came up with a 3.80 ERA. His ERA this year? 3.86.)

Almost certainly, one of these guys will get traded. It seems quite possible that the Braves will decline Hudson's option, then attempt sign him to a multiyear deal, and considering his performance at the end of the year, keeping the southern sinkerballer in Atlanta seems like a great idea. The offseason pitching market hasn't shaped up yet, and won't till after the World Series; John Lackey will certainly get paid, but unless a lot of options are declined, the pickings will be slim after that. Of all the Braves' pitchers, I think Lowe and Kawakami's contracts are least likely to be traded, because of the number of years and dollars remaining for each.

Jair Jurrjens isn't likely to be traded by any means, but he's also at the very peak of his value, a young, team-controlled pitcher coming off a career year at the tender age of 23. Then again, with Hanson and Jurrjens looking like Glavine and Maddux redux, it's hard to imagine Wren ever willingly letting either one go. Over the next four years, the Braves almost certainly will have a better chance to win in the playoffs with Jurrjens than without him. He should stay, and he will. Meanwhile, Hanson is, of course, untradeable. He's the most valuable player in the organization and one of the most valuable in all of baseball. He's due for a regression next year, but that doesn't mean he'll actually regress: his potential is virtually limitless, and over the course of the year his components improved substantially, a good indication for 2010.

If the Braves are unable to come to terms with Hudson for an extension, it's possible but not likely that they might exercise his option and then attempt to trade his one-year contract. Javy Vazquez is probably likeliest to go, because he's just got one year left, and $11.5 million is quite reasonable for a guy with a 2.87 ERA -- unfortunately, he's got a reputation for being up and down, which may depress his value a little bit. He's almost certainly due for a regression to the mean: his ERA and FIP are both more than a run lower than his career average.

After the Braves have decided who will stay and who will go, their thorniest question will be who should start on opening day. Based on dollars and precedent it should be Lowe; based on 2009 performance it should be Jurrjens; based on potential it should be Hanson. 2010 will be Bobby's last in the dugout, but it should be another memorable one for the Braves. They have all the pieces in place for another terrific rotation.
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Now that we've gotten through our first ten player profiles of the guys on the Braves' 40-man roster (actually, you're going to get 42 profiles, what with Jorge Campillo and Jordan Schafer on the 60-day DL!), let's take a look at what we've projected for the roster as a whole.  I'm going to group these guys into categories, and we'd love to hear in the comments if you would move guys around.  I've listed the categories in terms of their potential to make the Opening Day roster, and I'm sticking to my own conclusions here (with plenty of room to move guys between categories after discussion).  As a final disclaimer, I don't view this as a discussion of what's most likely to happen; rather, we are going to what we'd like to see.

Rotation: Tim Hudson, Kenshin Kawakami, Derek Lowe

Controversial trade candidate: Jair Jurrjens [note: to those who think it's laughable to stick Jurrjens here, I hear you and you have a valid argument.  Just please let me know in the comments how you would rearrange things to make room for him.  I do think at least one player has to be in this controversial trade category.]

In the bullpen if fully recovered from injury: Jorge Campillo, Buddy Carlyle (unless arb-eligible)

Riding the bus back and forth to Gwinnett (hopefully): Manny Acosta, Boone Logan

Fearing for his roster life: Stephen Marek

What prospect status Stephen Marek might have had when he was acquired from the Angels along with Mark Teixeira has probably evaporated after his incredibly disappointing 2009 season.  Fighting through injuries and ineffectiveness all season, he failed to follow up on his promising showing in last year's Arizona Fall League.

Tossing 45 innings across two levels, he walked 36 batters at an astounding rate of 7.2 per nine innings.  He's still a fireballer with good stuff, and it can't hurt that he was seen as a potential late-inning reliever prior to the '09 campaign, but you almost find yourself hoping he was pitching hurt because at least that would explain some of the massive wildness issues.  The other unfortunate fact for Marek is that he's already 26, which means the future is now.  Either he gets himself healthy and gets his act together by the spring, or he's going to be permanently relegated to the lost cause bin.

The bottom line: Looked like he could join the likes of Craig Kimbrel and Cory Gearrin in the Braves' bullpen youth brigade, but his 2009 season was an unmitigated disaster.

Braves fans and bloggers have spilled lots of digital ink venting their frustration with Derek Lowe.  He was paid $60 million over four years to come in and be an "ace," and instead he's come in and posted an ERA higher than any of the other five starters on the Braves' staff.  Lots of fans appear willing to trade him for nothing more than salary relief, even if that means eating a significant portion of the last three years of his deal.

But looking at Lowe's ERA doesn't tell the whole story.  Yes, his strikeout rate is down from his sparkling 2008 campaign, and his walk rate is up, but his 3.78 FIP is still darn respectable, and in fact his peripheral rates are incredibly similar to his 2006 campaign in which he posted a 3.63 ERA.  What's different this year is his .331 BABIP, which is 35 points higher than his unluckiest year in Dodger Blue (2007), even though there was only a negligible rise in his line drive rate.  For a guy that pitches to contact as much as Lowe does, those extra hits make a huge difference.

It doesn't help that Chipper Jones has been absolutely atrocious playing third base, Martin Prado and Kelly Johnson haven't exactly sparkled on D, and even Yunel Escobar's UZR is negative.  That sort of thing kills a groundball machine like Lowe, so perhaps it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to trade Lowe to a team that can put a decent infield behind him.  Even more efficient, though, would be to try to make some strides on defense so that your $60 million man can play his game and be a top-end starter once again.

The bottom line: Any winter trade scenario involving Lowe is likely a pipe dream, unless Wren is unwise enough to simply pay another team to take him off the Braves' hands.  With a little help from his defense, there's no reason why Lowe can't be a #2 starter once again in short order.

Author's note: The statistics in this post were compiled prior to Lowe's final start.  After five walks and just one strikeout over 4 2/3 innings against the Nationals, his FIP rose to 4.06, and his BABIP fell to .330.

I'll be doing an occasional series of analyses of the Braves' 2009 campaign, with an eye toward 2010. As the playoffs start, I'm starting with the way our season ended.

It was a good season, the best of the four since we last made the playoffs. But it was a horrible end: the Braves followed an incredible seven-game winning streak (the final six on the road), which got them within a hair's breadth of the playoffs, with a disspiriting six-game home losing streak, which first killed their playoff hopes and then killed any chance of ending the season on a high note. It's understandable that the players experienced a letdown once their mathematical chances went from slim to none, but you couldn't have picked a worse way to go out if you tried -- getting swept at home by the Washington Nationals, including two straight extra-inning losses in games 161 and 162. Ouch.

The last month of the season, the Braves went from a fairly even-keel team to an incredibly streaky one. A team that had just three five-game streaks in its first five months (five-game winning streaks in July and August, a five-game losing streak in March) suddenly had three in its last month, two separate seven-game winning streaks and then the six-game losing streak to end the season.

The team that ended the season was clearly, obviously better than the opening day roster: adding Nate McLouth, Tommy Hanson, and Adam LaRoche, and subtracting Jordan Schafer, Jeff Francoeur and Casey Kotchman made the team an immediate playoff contender. But as has been so often the case in the last few years, the team just couldn't quite get over the hump: the Braves underperformed their Pythagorean expectation by five games, as their 735-641 run differential suggested a 91-win team. (From 2006-2009, the Braves are 22 games under their Pythagorean expectation.)

When I remember the 2009 Braves, I'll have a lot more fun remembering the September 28 team, 85-70, two games out of the Wild Card, riding a 7-game win streak. It was their longest winning streak since 2006, the most games over .500 since 2005, the closest we'd been to the playoffs since 2005. For the first time since the Golden Era, we had inarguably the best rotation in baseball, with a $60 million #5 starter and twin babyfaced assassins. Shed of Francoeur's dead weight, we averaged 4.9 runs a game, after averaging just 4.2 runs a game with him on the team.

In short, we were a good baseball team, no matter what the final six games might have suggested. We knew our flaws -- we didn't have a real home run threat, Chipper was slumping, and Derek Lowe was mediocre -- but the team we had on September 28 was a team that you wouldn't mind seeing on Opening Day. Not one you'd take all the way to the Series, maybe, but you'd feel pretty good about it.

But the September 28 Braves did lose their last six games. They scored 17 runs in six games -- they had exactly 52 hits, and left exactly 52 men on base. The pitching was heartbreakingly good, allowing just 23 earned runs in 62 innings, just 16 by the starters. After going 11-30 in one-run games last year and 48-88 overall from 2006-2008, the September 28 Braves were 27-21 in one-run games, thanks in large part to a mostly healthy Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. After September 28, four of the Braves' six losses were by exactly one run.

It's hard to watch a team that seems to be too emotionally exhausted to try. In 2006, we watched the Braves lose 21 games in June and seemingly give up on the season at the beginning of the summer. This year, we watched a near-playoff team spit out the bit a few lengths before the finish line. It's heartening that they got as close as they did -- but demoralizing to see how they handled losing out.

Still, I'd much rather see them lose meaningless games than meaningful games. If they had to have a six-game losing streak, I'm glad that it came after mathematical elimination. I just wish it hadn't happened at all.
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There are some interesting Braves news nuggets making the rounds this afternoon, so I'll toss up a post recapping some of the interesting stories of the week.

• Bobbie Dittmeyer of MLB.com names the Braves as one of ten teams to have scouted 18-year-old Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi.  Kikuchi reportedly touches 95 on the gun, and he hasn't decided whether he will seek to remain in Japan or to make the jump across the pond a la Junichi Tazawa last winter.  After the Braves' interest in Tazawa and their signing of Kenshin Kawakami, you have to think they'll be in on Kikuchi if he does come stateside.
• David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says the Braves are "serious" about getting a right-handed power bat, and emphasizes that they won't consider left-handed hitters.  Seems obvious enough, but at least they aren't trying to sell us that we'll be fine with what we've got.
• ESPN's Rumor Central (subscription required) throws a few names into the right-handed hitter hat.  They see Matt Holliday and Jason Bay as too expensive for the Braves (duh).  They are clearly just speculating offhand, but they name Dan Uggla, Miguel Tejada and even Gary Sheffield (gasp!) as potential targets.
  
• Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider required) polled a group of executives, who say they expect the Braves to offer arbitration to Mike Gonzalez but not to Rafael Soriano.  They also say that there is a decent chance that Gonzalez accepts arbitration, given the state of the economy and the abundance of relief pitching on the free-agent market.  Interesting decision there, as Soriano is likely the bigger health risk, but also the better pitcher.  Don't expect the Braves to offer arb to both, that's for sure...too risky that both accept.
• DOB thinks the Braves "might" be able to find a team willing to take on most if not all of Derek Lowe's contract via trade, given the dearth of free-agent starting pitching.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if the Mets might be that team.  Mark Bowman of MLB.com confirms that Frank Wren will "explore" the possibility of moving Lowe.  The Mets did pursue Lowe heavily last winter, and they do need starting pitching at all costs.  I still have some faith in D-Lowe, but shedding his salary could be a huge boon.  Interesting story to watch.
• In the Bowman article linked to above, Bobby Cox emphasizes that the Braves would have to be blown away to trade Javier Vazquez.  As a huge Javy fan, that's what I like to hear.  Given that he seems to be very comfortable in Atlanta, he could be another guy that would consider a reasonable contract extension.
• Mark Bowman also has some more info on his blog.  He names Ryan Church as a potential non-tender candidate this winter, which makes sense given his potential $3.5 million salary, his back problems, and the emergences of Matt Diaz and Jason Heyward.  He also mentions that Kelly Johnson is "drawing attention" from several teams, though Cox hedges on the possibility of trading KJ by noting that Martin Prado plays right field in winter ball (and played a few innings there in the Braves' last game of the season) and could always move to the outfield to make room for Kelly at second. Likely story, Bobby.  I still hold out hope for Johnson, but his rising salary could definitely be prohibitive, and if he can bring back value in trade, there's reason to pull the trigger.

The extra piece acquired in the Javier Vazquez deal, Boone Logan was a nice pick-up to provide some competition for the lefty reliever job that had been so ably filled by Will Ohman in 2008.  Unfortunately for him, Eric O'Flaherty stepped up and proved every bit as valuable as Ohman, leaving Logan to be an integral part of Gwinnett's bullpen.  Logan's got a nice heater, but not much else to back it up.  While there was hope that he might have some real upside, his limited major-league sample this year would suggest that he's a LOOGY in the making (.907 OPSa vs. RHB, .641 vs. LHB).

With O'Flaherty looking like a lock to be a key part of the 2010 'pen, it's a bit tough to see where Logan fits in, unless Frank Wren really strikes out in terms of filling out the back end of the relief corps.  If Mike Gonzalez leaves, Logan could make the team as a second lefty, but ideally you'd avoid carrying a specialist with Logan's limitations.  Maybe another year of working with renowned pitching coach Derek Botelho does him some good, or maybe he lives up to his reputation of being hard-headed and difficult to coach and gets relegated to the ignominious pile of twelfth pitchers floating around the minor-league free-agent pool.

The bottom line: Guys with his skill set are dime-a-dozen, and while there's still upside here, there's no reason to expect any real contributions, and it would be best if he weren't on the Opening Day roster.

It's easy to forget that before Tommy Hanson came along, Kenshin Kawakami was also once seen as a possible Rookie of the Year contender.  Calling him a rookie is really a technicality, but the point is that I think it's easy to overlook Kawakami among the Braves' constellation of pitching stars.  Perhaps the reason he's overlooked is that he's been pretty much exactly what the Braves signed him to be (i.e., he hasn't exceeded expectations like rotation-mates Javier Vazquez or Tommy Hanson).  But as a National League #4 starter, I really don't think you can do much better than a solid arm like Kawakami.

It took him some time to get adjusted, but in the 10 starts prior to his getting bumped from the rotation, he'd delivered seven quality starts.  His peripherals are solid if unspectacular, and his 4.24 FIP is actually well above-average when it comes to back-end starters.  He gets talked about sometimes as something of a salary burden, but frankly, his three-year/$23 million deal looks like a bargain given his performance this season.

Given the Braves' current excess of starting pitching, the decision to move him to relief is defensible, but in the long term, I'm not sure the bullpen is where Kawakami belongs.  He's faced some fatigue issues after the 75-pitch mark (1.062 OPSa), but up to that point he's been quite effective (.773 OPSa pitches 1-25, .700 OPSa pitches 25-50, .585 OPSa pitches 50-75).  Part of those fatigue issues probably have to do with getting used to taking turns on one less day of rest (since Japanese clubs generally use six-man rotations), but even if he still runs into a wall late in games, he's more valuable as a starter you hook quickly than as a seldom-used mop-up long reliever.  There's some merit to the idea that Bobby Cox devised during the Mets' series, where he used Kawakami to record a four-inning save, but that seems a bit too avant-garde to have Bobby do that on anything resembling a regular basis.
I'm not sure he's flashy enough to garner much if any real trade value, so I think you keep him around for 2010, and slide him back into your #5 slot and enjoy the reliability of the NL's best fifth starter.

The bottom line: With all the pitching talent on the Braves' roster, it's not hard to forget about Kawakami, but let's not underestimate the value of a guy that can take the ball every fifth day and give you quality starts. - [Read more]

Here is my brief interview with Tom Glavine yesterday in the Mets clubhouse in Port St. Lucie. Tom was very gracious and accommodating; he had several reporters waiting to talk with him so I may have cut my questioning a bit short because of that. Also, don't forget to follow this link and check out my interview of Rickey Henderson over at Baseball Digest Daily - it's a real beaut.

Martin Gandy: As you approach 300 victories, do you have any regrets doing it in a Mets uniform as opposed to a Braves uniform?

Tom Glavine: No I don't. I think there's benefits for doing it in both places, but I think that it worked out the way that it did for a reason and I think it's the kind of thing that if I'm fortunate enough to get there and do it then I think it will be something that I will enjoy doing in New York.

MG: On the Braves side this off-season, they kind of mentioned that maybe you didn't give them enough time to try and sign you; do you have any comments about that?

TG: Everybody knew what my timeframe was pretty much from the start of the winter.

MG: Even with respect to the Braves payroll situation. Maybe they needed to clear some first before they [signed you].

TG: Well, I think that probably was the case, but I certainly can't leave the Mets hanging all winter, and I'm certainly not going to leave myself hanging all winter long. Everybody knew I had a timetable. So, it just didn't work out.

MG: With Pedro on the shelf for most of the season this year, do you feel that you need to carry this staff?

TG: No, I think that obviously it puts a little bit of pressure on my starts, it puts a little bit of importance on my starts. I don't think it's the kind of thing that one player can make up the difference. We all have to pitch in and try and pick up the slack a little bit and do the best we can to make Pedro's absence have the least amount of effect on us as we possibly can. So, I put a lot of pressure on myself to go out there and pitch well every time anyway regardless of who is or isn't around. You know, hopefully we'll all pitch in and help out.

MG: What's the biggest difference between the Braves clubhouse and the Mets clubhouse?

TG: Right now not a lot. I think they're both pretty laid back, business-like approach to the game, professional approach to the game. I think in New York there's a whole lot more media that follows us around on a daily basis, but in terms of the personalities or the atmosphere in the clubhouse, I think they're pretty similar.

MG: You still root for the Thrashers?

TG: I do, yeah. They're my team now, so I try and get down there as much as I can.

MG: Excited about them going to the playoffs?

TG: I am, I hope they continue playing well and get a good seed, so we'll see what happens; it should be fun.

MG: Thanks a lot.

TG: You're welcome.

Okay, I’ve been out for the last week, but here’s the last week in a brief recap: Mike Hampton tore his oblique muscle while taking batting practice and will miss at least 2 months.  The Braves went out and signed left-hander Mark Redman to help create more competition for the rotation.  Redman, Lance Cormier, and Kyle [...] - [Read more]

I was able to catch Julio for a few minutes in the Mets locker room before the game today and ask him some questions. At one point he caught me probing at the wrong question and called me on it a bit, but he did it in a cheerful way. He's an extremely gracious individual and stopped where he was going to stay and talk with me. From my observations of him in the locker room I can tell that he is more than just a player, but also a mentor to many of the players, especially Latino players, on the Mets.

Martin Gandy: So, a year on now after leaving the Braves. How does it feel being a Met verses being a Brave? What are the differences in the two teams?

Julio Franco: Well, not really to say it's different, every team is different. Every team has one goal, to win the World Series. I think we did a pretty good job in Atlanta. I came here and it's also the same goal, to win the World Series. Every team's got that in common in this stage in spring training, to have the ultimate goal which is reach the World Series. And you know, that's the difference, in the horse race you don't want to be left behind, you don't want to be too in front, you want to be in the pack, still competing. Because then everybody has a chance. Look what happened to St. Louis last year because they were in the pack. It's great what we did last year, being the team in the front, but we don't finish in the front.

MG: Being in the front this year, you're the front runners for the division.

JF: Well I don't see it that way. I see it, our goal is not who's going to catch us, our goal is to real the ultimate goal, which is grab that trophy and show it to the world, and that's the winning attitude. That's what this team wants. I'm sure that they think we have unfinished business we need to accomplish.

MG: Do you consider yourself sort of a player/coach here on this team?

JF: No, I consider myself a player.

MG: Player first.

JF: Of course.

MG: You know Rickey Henderson showed up today and he's about the same age as you.

JF: Well let's not talk about age. How old are you?

MG: 31

JF: Can you play baseball?

MG: I cannot.

JF: See that's the difference.

MG: Age doesn't matter, right?

JF: No, as long as you have the ability to play this game. That's all that matters. I believe that God has given me that ability. Some people are 20 and they're good lawyers, some are 40 and not good lawyers.

MG: When do you think you're going to make the transition to being a coach, perhaps, is that something you want to do eventually?

JF: Of course, when God tells me this is it. And don't ask me when God's going to tell me that's it. I think a good sign is when the body says, "no more." Well, you're a writer, but if your body doesn't allow you to come here and do the things you need to do, it doesn't matter if you want to do it, you can't do it. That's the sign I'm waiting for when my body says, "you know what, I think this is it." And when that comes, believe me, I'll be grateful because it's been a great ride. I enjoyed it.

MG: Are you going to be able to help a guy like [Jorge] Sosa. You played with Sosa in Atlanta in 05.

JF: I think that I can help anybody if I can find out what he's doing wrong. What we're all here for is to help each other, not only me helping him, he can also help me.

MG: But you're one of the guys that knew him back on the Braves too.

JF: Yes, yes, Sosa's a great guy. He had a bad year, everyone is entitled to do that. He can regroup. He's got a good arm. He's got a good pitching coach here. He listens and we have a good ball club, I think we're going to score a lot of runs. If he can give five, six, seven strong innings, he's got a pretty good chance to be successful.

MG: Thank you very much for your time.

**********

I'll post my interview with Tom Glavine tomorrow, as that will be another travel day for me. I may even try to post the audio file of the interview as it seems pretty clean without too much background noise. It's another short little interview like this one with Julio, and I try to work in as much Braves related content as I can. My interview with Rickey Henderson will be up tonight over at Baseball Digest Daily, it's a long interview; I'll post a link when it goes up.

So after two days of driving from Atlanta to Jacksonville and then Jax to Port St. Lucie, I'm finally at a baseball stadium. Boy was the drive down I-95 boring as hell today - nothing but flat straight roads laced with early morning Florida fog.

I arrived a bit late at Tradition Field, but I was still able to get into the Mets clubhouse and talk to several players. I had a long conversation with Ricky Henderson who just got down to spring training and who is serving as a base-running coach for the Mets. I also talked with Julio Franco, who only mentioned God three times. I'll have both of those interviews transcribed and posted either here or at Baseball Digest Daily (or both) later on today.

I was able to get with Tom Glavine briefly; he's pitching today so he doesn't talk to media before the game. He indicated that he would try and make some time for me after he finished up his work later on in the game.

It's a bit different here in spring training as opposed to the regular season as the clubhouses are open pretty much the whole game with players coming and going throughout. I'll blog the first part of the game and give some highlights, if there are any, then I'm going to shoot down to the clubhouse and try to talk with Tommy.

It looks like a packed house here today for the Marlins split-squad at the Mets split-squad. This is a fairly new field and fairly big for a spring/minor league facility.

Tom Glavine throws the first pitch to Hanley Ramirez.
Glavine had a 1-2-3 first inning, but Ramirez hit a ball about 500 feet that went foul.

The Braves signed left-handed starter Mark Redman to a minor league contract in hopes that he will fill out the fifth spot in the rotation. Redman's major league resume reads like your typical no-frills fifth starter.

I also think there's more than one reason that it's March 9th and no one had signed him yet. The MLB article says that he priced himself out of the free agent market, but how do you really put a price on a 5.71 ERA. And if the attitude is this, then it's not looking too pretty:

Yes, thank God we got a "veteran" to "eat up innings." Certainly wouldn't want to put a young pitcher in that role who might learn something on the job. Gosh!