Cubs

It was really considerate of the city of St. Louis to shoot off fireworks for the Cubs' 2-1 win over the Cardinals, wasn't it?

Just as Kerry Wood was finishing off the victory, the grand finale of the downtown St. Louis 4th of July fireworks show splashed across the sky -- you could hear the "booms" loudly on TV, so I can only imagine how loud they must have been at Busch Stadium. For more firsthand information from St. Louis, see 08Cubs' FanPost, containing a short recap and photos from an excellent lower box seat (how'd you score that one, anyway?).

Everything went right last night... yes, everything. Carlos Zambrano threw six solid innings, going 87 pitches (Lou had said he'd be limited to 85-90, and despite batting in the top of the 7th and having a rather animated discussion with Lou in the dugout, Z was lifted to start the 7th) and allowing two walks and four singles, two of which were infield dribblers. Z was apparently "livid" (a quote from an article whose online link I cannot find right now) when they told him he was going on the DL, because he felt he didn't need the two weeks off. The team treaded water (losing one game off its division lead) during that time, but clearly, Z is fine, and he has pitched some of his best games in St. Louis. Last night was no exception, and his ninth win of the season keeps him in the running for an All-Star spot. He seemed focused and not too over-the-top; he threw strikes and wasn't trying to make up for the two weeks off all in one night.

Bob Howry, Neal Cotts and Kerry Wood all did their jobs last night -- I was especially pleased with Howry, even though he gave up the solo HR to Albert Pujols, because he got five outs on sixteen pitches. If Howry can throw this way every time out, there will be less pressure on Carlos Marmol. Cotts did the job he was asked to do -- retire one lefthanded hitter, Rick Ankiel.

One of the reasons I really enjoy watching Wood pitch is that he works quickly. He'll get the ball back and be ready to throw right away, and that keeps fielders ready, keeps the pace of the game at HIS pace, and I think is one of the many reasons he's been so successful. The WGN speed meter had him at 96-97 MPH. Second in the NL in saves, Wood should also be an All-Star selection. We'll find out on Sunday. Incidentally, and maybe this sounds like a homer comment, but Troy Glaus' histrionics when he was called out on strikes by plate umpire Ted Barrett seemed a little over the top and I'm surprised he wasn't ejected. The pitches were close, but on TV at least, appeared to be strikes.

The Cub offense wasn't great yesterday, but the two solo HR by Kosuke Fukudome (who had a terrific at-bat before slicing the ball into the RF seats) and Geovany Soto (who had three hits and nearly hit two HR off Braden Looper) were enough. Say, do you do this? If the Cubs lose, I switch the TV off right after the last out. When they win, I'll leave it on for a while to savor it.

Finally, a tip o' the BCB cap to Cardinals fans, who gave Jim Edmonds a long, warm standing ovation on his first at-bat last night. This is, I think, what distinguishes the Cub/Cardinal rivalry from, say, the Yankee/Red Sox rivalry. For me, at least, it is a healthy respect for the other team and for the long rivalry between the two teams -- and there really is nothing better than a pennant race between the Cubs and Cardinals (especially when the Cubs come out on top). Did Red Sox fans welcome Johnny Damon back in Yankee pinstripes? I doubt it. Those people seem to really hate each other. I'd like to think Cubs and Cardinals fans are better than that.

That said, nice win. Go get 'em again today.

Time for some heroics from Jim Edmonds!

Must. Win. Today.

Let the game begin!

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I exchanged five questions about the upcoming series with Larry Borowsky of the SBN Cardinals site Viva El Birdos. You can go there for my answers to his questions; here are his responses to mine:

BCB: How? OK, that's the short version, but many Cubs fans thought the Cardinals were headed for a rebuilding year. How are they doing it? How are this year's Cardinals contending at midseason?

VEB: Most Cardinal fans expected a rebuilding year too; we’re as surprised as you guys are. Here are three reasons why they’re winning. Reason #1: the St. Louis pitchers are among the league’s best at preventing walks and home runs. Two guys who didn’t project to be in the Cardinal rotation when spring training began, Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer, are having breakout seasons; Wellemeyer’s elbow has been bothering him for a month, and that’s a huge concern because the Cards can’t replace him if his performance drops off. Reason #1A: the defense has been outstanding at nearly every position (with the possible exception of left field). The pitchers keep the ball in play, and the fielders get to most of those balls and turn them into outs. The Cardinals’ collapse last year had a lot to do with bad defense up the middle ---- Edmonds and Eckstein both had awful years with the glove --- and it has improved by leaps and bounds in 2008. Reason #3: They’re getting tremendous mileage out of a pretty unspectacular group of outfielders. Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, and Skip Schumaker are all in their late 20s and all first-year regulars --- it has taken them a long time to blossom. None is an MVP candidate, but they’re all getting on base and hitting for power. Any or all of them might be half-year flukes, but so far they’ve shown an ability to make adjustments.

BCB: Will Ryan Franklin continue to close all year, or will Jason Isringhausen get the job back? Or will it go to someone else?

VEB: Isringhausen looked great his first half-dozen games back from the DL and appeared ready to reclaim the closer’s job, but then he messed up his knee during a stretching exercise. He’s now pitching with the knee in a brace. His mechanics already were very delicate, owing to the balky hip which was repaired in 2006 --- if the knee continues to bother him and / or reactivates the hip problem, then he may be headed back to the DL (or into retirement) instead of the closer’s role. If Izzy doesn’t return as closer, Franklin probably will stay there --- he has been serviceable so far.

BCB: What do you fear most about facing the Cubs this weekend?

VEB: I wouldn’t use the word "fear"; I’m looking forward to seeing how the two teams match up. The Cards and Cubs will meet 9 or 10 more times after this set, so nothing will be decided this week. I do think the Cubs have one big advantage they might exploit: The Cardinal pitching is extremely vulnerable at the moment, so I can imagine a scenario in which the mighty Cub lineup blows the Cardinals out 3 times in a row. That outcome wouldn’t surprise me. And Ted Lilly is generally hard on the Cardinals, so the Saturday game is a tough matchup for our team. But even if the series goes badly, the Cardinals don’t have much to fear at all --- they weren’t and aren’t expected to win anything this year, and there is very little pressure on them. Being the underdog rocks.

BCB: What's your biggest worry -- what is/are the thing(s) that could go wrong to make the Cardinals' wheels fall off?

VEB: Their pitching staff is really thin with Wainwright out and Wellemeyer ailing. It is affecting not only the rotation but also the bullpen, which has a heavier load to carry and is starting to sag under the burden. Wainwright is talking about returning to the rotation right after the All-Star break, but I think he’s just being optimistic; from what I’ve heard he’s likely to be absent until some time in August. If Wellemeyer doesn’t get back on track, the Cards will have to trade for a starting pitcher to stay in the race, and they will think long and hard before they trade any prospects for a rent-a-pitcher --- the long-term rebuilding plan remains a higher organizational priority than the 2008 race.

BCB: What are the strengths and weaknesses of all three teams in the Central race?

VEB: That’s a big question, and I only have time for a quick n dirty answer. In my mind, all 3 teams are vulnerable in the rotation --- all 3 aces (Z, Wainwright, and Sheets) have health concerns, and all 3 rotations are ordinary (or worse) when those aces are absent. I think Sheets is the best pitcher in the division, the kind of guy who can singlehandedly propel a team to great heights --- and he’s largely been healthy this year. The Cardinals have the best hitter (and he, too, can singlehandedly drive a team to victory), but the Cubs have the best overall offense and the most weapons. Without question the Cardinals have the best defense. On paper the Cubs and Brewers look like the best teams, but the Cards have played themselves into the mix. It’s possible we’ll end up with a kind of race baseball has never seen, in which 3 teams from one division are vying for two playoff spots. That would be exciting.

Today's Starting Pitchers

C. Zambrano Cubs vs. B. Looper Cardinals 8-3 W-L 9-5 3.13 ERA 4.26 68 SO 44 36 BB 26 7 HR 10 vs. StL -- vs. Cubs

Here, you should be seeing a stat line with Z's season stats. Something is wrong with the stat service providing this, and it shows some... well, see for yourself:

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Braden Looper's Cardinals stats are correct:

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One thing you notice right away about Z's record is that he's cut down both on his walks and K's. Cutting down on K's doesn't necessarily sound good until you realize that Z had his best success -- in 2003 -- when he had his sinker working. Hopefully, that will be the case tonight. He has had some of his best games vs. the Cardinals -- 8-4, 2.37 in 18 career starts -- including this key game in the pennant race last September. Albert Pujols has hit only .234 vs. Z, but with 4 HR in 47 AB.

Braden Looper has been a competent starter for the Cardinals, something I'd have never expected given his long career as a reliever before that. He made four starts vs. the Cubs last year and went 2-1, 1.67. Most of the Cubs had a tough time with him -- maybe Jim Edmonds, who he has never faced, will make the difference.

Today's game is on WGN -- after yesterday, I make no more predictions based on TV channel! Also on FSN in the St. Louis area, on EI, and at the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday (2007 version)

MLB.com Gameday (2008 version)

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Today's first pitch thread will post at first pitch time, 7:15 pm CT. The overflow comment threads will post at 8:30 and 9:30 pm CT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

BCB Quiz: What do you see in the picture?

a) A glass half empty
b) A glass half full
c) When is it going to spill?

That's an old Cub fan joke, and maybe it isn't that funny, especially after another bad-looking loss, 8-3 to the Giants, but if you're getting that "sky is falling" feeling this morning, think about this: You could be a Brewers fan, having just watched your team blow a five-run ninth inning lead to the Diamondbacks and lose 6-5 when three Milwaukee relievers faced seven Arizona hitters in the 9th and got none of them out.

Or, you could be a Cardinals fan, having just watched your team get blown out 11-1 by a mediocre Mets team (remember? the team the Cubs beat 7-1 and 8-1 in Chicago in April?) and having Tony LaRussa treat one of his kid starters, Mitchell Boggs, like he did Jason Marquis two years ago and leave him on the mound for six innings to take an 10-hit, 6-walk, 11-run pounding.

Feel better now? Since Carlos Zambrano walked off the mound in Tampa on June 18, making all of us cringe as he called the coaching and training staff out to look at his right shoulder, the Cubs are 6-8. Yet, they have lost exactly one game of their division lead since that date, and tonight Z takes the mound in St. Louis in a matchup of the teams with the two best records in the National League, in a series the Cubs really have to win, if for no other reason than to actually prove to themselves that they can win a series on the road -- they haven't since the series I attended in Toronto three weekends ago.

They should have won the series in San Francisco instead of splitting it -- especially after scoring three runs off Tim Lincecum, a run total he's allowed only six times in his 18 starts this year. Sean Gallagher had one bad inning, the second, in which he allowed all four of his runs, and the last one scored when Geovany Soto dropped a Ray Durham popup that allowed the fourth (unearned) run to score. In fairness, the wind was howling pretty good yesterday and that took the ball from foul to fair territory, away from Geovany. Still, if he catches it, Mark DeRosa's two-run double in the sixth would have tied the game instead of just making it 4-3 and then who knows?

What I do know is that Jose Ascanio is likely headed back to Iowa today when Z is activated (and Gallagher's headed to the bullpen). Despite having a good arm, Ascanio has had a penchant for helping turn close games into blowouts. He did it last Sunday at the Cell when he allowed a two-run HR by Jim Thome that turned a 3-1 deficit into a virtually insurmountable 5-1 lead, and again yesterday when he misplayed Omar Vizquel's bunt. Vizquel is an excellent bunter, but the one in the 7th yesterday might have been turned into a double play with a better-fielding pitcher. At the very least it should have resulted in an out; Lou had very little patience with his bullpen yesterday, pulling Ascanio right after that and then yanking his replacement, Carlos Marmol, after Marmol threw exactly three pitches to Rich Aurilia, the third of which was deposited in the LF bleachers to make the score 7-3, effectively ending the game.

You want to worry about Marmol? Go ahead, because so am I (and so is Lou). Including his meltdown in Tampa on June 19, Marmol in his last seven appearances has pitched five innings, allowed five hits, seven walks and three HR for ten earned runs and an 18.00 ERA. I don't know what's wrong with him; if he's hurt he needs to get to the DL, and if he's not, something has to be turned around quickly because the Cubs can't win games without him.

The shadows at Phone Holding Company Park weren't a factor till about the seventh inning; at game time the entire field was still in bright sunshine, but that didn't help the Cubs hit Tim Lincecum that well. He still struck out eight in his six innings.

So while you might think things are collapsing, take heart. Z returns tonight. Alfonso Soriano's going to start hitting off a tee tonight, in anticipation of a rehab assignment and possibly a return by next weekend. The Cubs still have the third-best record in baseball, behind the Rays and Angels, and maintain a 2.5 game division lead.

Win this series!

Is the sun down yet?

It's kind of like an East Coast start, at this time. Except for the shadows. Maybe it'll be cloudy.

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Remember, the following paragraph is supposed to be humor. Not serious. Anyway:

During the 2006 season -- a lost cause, anyway -- something odd happened as the season went by. (Yeah, I know, a LOT of odd stuff happened in 2006... but this is specific.) The Cubs lost eighteen straight games that were WGN telecasts. On June 11, the streak ended in Cincinnati. It got so bad that even Len and Bob mentioned it on WGN's airwaves. It's happening again. The Cubs are now 27-13 in games telecast on CSN and 17-16 in WGN games. Yes, I know this really shouldn't matter. Still, this is a very odd coincidence. For whatever it's worth, there are 40 remaining telecasts on CSN (including today), and 27 on WGN. The remaining ten games: four on WCIU -- one of which, Monday, August 4 vs. Houston, will also be on ESPN; three Saturdays on Fox, and three TBA Sunday games, some of which might wind up on ESPN.

If you're really set on the Cubs acquiring C. C. Sabathia, or another big-time body, before the trading deadline, Jayson Stark's column today is a cautionary tale well worth reading.

And, I have it on good authority that tonight's pitchers are in line to be stunt doubles on the next Wayne's World movie:

Today's Starting Pitchers

S. Gallagher Cubs vs. T. Lincecum Giants 3-3 W-L 9-1 4.36 ERA 2.38 47 SO 114 20 BB 43 6 HR 5 vs. SF -- vs. Cubs

Thanks to BCB reader pfd89 for the new Gallagher headshot.

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The good news is, the Cubs faced Lincecum twice in 2007 and won both games, even though Lincecum pitched pretty well both times -- 2.51 ERA in the two starts, 14.1 IP. He did walk six Cubs in those 14.1 innings, and that was before the new, improved, take-some-pitches Cubs of 2008. With the shadows today, waiting him out might be the best strategy.

Sean Gallagher's going to have to be on his game today. He threw a ton of pitches in his last start vs. the White Sox and after a rocky start, took one for the team by finishing six innings. He has never faced the Giants.

And who on Earth picked this starting time? No one is going to be able to see anyone's pitches for the first six innings.

Today's game is, thankfully if you believe the above TV won-lost record, on CSN Chicago. And CSN Bay Area; if you think CSN is good luck for the Cubs, this is a double dose! Also see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday (2007 version)

MLB.com Gameday (2008 version)

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Today's first pitch thread goes up at 6:00 pm CT and the overflow comment threads will post at 7:15 pm and 8:15 pm CT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Thank heavens, injured and absent Cubs will begin to return today.

Aramis Ramirez, in the Dominican Republic the last three days for the birth of a child, will return in time for today's odd-starting-time 4 pm (PDT) game, and Reed Johnson will be activated from the DL (starting the guessing game: who goes? Matt Murton and Eric Patterson are the likely choices, and I'm thinking it's Murton, since he's a right-handed-hitting outfielder and so is Johnson). And tomorrow, Carlos Zambrano will return from the DL to start against the Cardinals and smartly, the Cubs will send him ahead to St. Louis early today to rest up.

And so, after last night's 6-5 win over the Giants, achieved with the help of a tiebreaking HR by the littlest Cub, 5-7 Mike Fontenot, the Cubs will have a real shot at accomplishing what they needed to coming into this series, a series win, three of four, despite facing the toughest pitcher on the Giants' staff, Tim Lincecum.

Once again, I didn't see most of this game, having to wake at 3 am for work. For the third day in a row, my feeling upon shutting the TV off was how the game finished: I was confident they'd win Monday night, had a feeling they wouldn't come back on Tuesday, and again felt good last night, as Ryan Dempster started off well and even though they should have scored more runs in the second inning, having loaded the bases with nobody out. Dempster should have had his 10th win, but Carlos Marmol had yet another shaky outing. Thanks to Jim Edmonds and Fontenot, and Kerry Wood's 21st save (and even that could have been better), the Cubs maintained their 2.5 game lead over the Cardinals, who waited out a long rain delay and came from behind to beat the Mets 8-7. (Mets. Remember them? Supposed to run away with the NL? They're two games under .500.)

Getting back to Lincecum for a moment, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated wrote a long feature on Lincecum which was the cover story in this week's issue, which arrived in my mailbox yesterday -- say, with the fabled SI cover jinx, maybe that's a good sign for the Cubs. Much of the article deals with how Lincecum, not a large man, throws as hard as he does with his unusual mechanics. In discussing mechanics, Verducci goes into detail about a certain former Employee of the Cubs:

Mark Prior is a classic example of a high-performing pitcher who was permitted to break down because of poor mechanics. Ironically, Prior was often hailed for his "flawless" mechanics when the Cubs drafted the righthander out of USC with the No. 2 pick in 2001, though that assessment seems to have been influenced by scouts' preference for his 6' 5", 225-pound body type. Studied closely, his mechanics included two severe red flags: 1) Prior lifted his throwing elbow higher than his shoulder before reaching the loaded position, increasing the stress on his elbow and shoulder; and 2) unlike Lincecum's dynamic late torso rotation, Prior rotated his hips and torso before getting to the loaded position. With the letters of Prior's jersey already facing the target, his arm could not simply "go along for the ride" -- the ride was over, so his arm had to generate all of its own power.

So now we know. Verducci also writes about former Cub #1 draft pick Bobby Brownlie:

Bobby Brownlie was supposed to be Tim Lincecum. A 6-foot righthander from Rutgers who hit 97 mph on the gun, Brownlie was regarded as one of the top pitchers in the 2002 draft. [Rick] Peterson was working as the A's pitching coach at the time. Just before the draft, Oakland G.M. Billy Beane gave Peterson videotapes of some 20 pitchers the A's were considering as draft picks and told him to break down each pitcher not by stuff and performance but by the biomechanics of their deliveries.

The previous winter Peterson had met Brownlie at a banquet and told him, "Hey, I hear you're great. Congratulations, I hear you're going to be a [first round] pick." But when he watched Brownlie on the tape Beane had given him, Peterson says, "I'm literally sick to my stomach. I'm going, 'This is so sad.' "

A few days later, when Beane asked Peterson what he thought of Brownlie, the pitching coach replied, "He has certain characteristics in his delivery that will lead to shoulder problems."

Bingo again. This article should be required reading not only for major league scouts, pitching coaches, managers and general managers, but for all young pitchers who have great arms -- there's a lot of hints in it, many of them from Tim Lincecum's dad, who helped him develop his unconventional style, on how to avoid injury by doing something that's not a natural human motion, pitching a baseball.

Onward to tonight. Let's win this series and then take two of three in St. Louis.

Kerry Wood's last save was a week ago. Long past time for one!

Go Cubs!

Today's positive thought: the Giants are horrible at home.

(That's positive for a Cubs fan, right?)

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Barry Rozner reminds us to not panic during tough times and that:

Back in 1984, Cubs players talked often of winning day home games and having their division opponents see that on the scoreboard by the time they took the field that night, adding pressure to keep pace.

So while players sometimes complain about playing day games during the heat of the summer in Chicago, the heat of the pennant race also is a factor.

"We have a lot of confidence at home no matter what time we play," said Cubs manager Lou Piniella. "But I could see that being a part of it. It's nice to put that 'W' up there early in the day, and letting the other (teams) chase it."

The Cubs are 33-10 (.767) at home this year, their best start ever at Wrigley Field, and are 20-7 (.741) during the day.

When they get home next Tuesday, the Cubs will play 38 of their final 73 at home, including at least 24 under the sun.

Exactly. And this has been, for the most part, a cooler-than-average summer so far.

Sean Marshall will start this weekend against the Cardinals because their lineup is loaded with lefthanded hitters, and after that a decision will be made on whether he stays or goes back to Iowa.

And, more perspective: if you are worried, keep in mind that the Red Sox have now lost five straight in Tampa and are 2.5 games behind them, in danger of being swept there twice in the same season. Feel better now?

Today's Starting Pitchers

R. Dempster Cubs vs. K. Correia Giants 9-3 W-L 1-5 3.26 ERA 4.79 86 SO 26 41 BB 19 10 HR 5 vs. SF -- vs. Cubs

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Kevin Correia has been mostly a reliever in his career before joining the Giants' rotation fulltime this year. Lifetime against the Cubs he's allowed four runs in two innings in four relief appearances. Jim Edmonds (2-for-5, both doubles) is the only Cub who has more than two lifetime plate appearances vs. the Cubs. The Cubs did smack Correia around pretty good in this year's first spring training game on February 28; Mike Fontenot hit a three-run HR off him that day.

Ryan Dempster is coming off his worst start of the season -- he had been amazingly consistent in his previous 16 outings, so let's count that one as an aberration. His 0-6, 5.40 record in 7 career starts vs. the Giants is pretty meaningless, as all seven of those were in 2003 or before, and there's no one left on the Giants from those days. Rich Aurilia is 8-for-19 against him, but he's handled Randy Winn easily (1-for-17, 5 strikeouts).

Today's game is on cable in Chicago and in the Bay Area, on EI and at the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday (2007 version)

MLB.com Gameday (2008 version)

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Today's first-pitch thread posts at 9:15 pm CT and, way past my bedtime, the overflow comment threads will post at 10:15 and 11:15 pm CT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.