Devil Rays

Common knowledge suggests Carlos Pena is a very nice man. A class act even, he's humble, kind, and articulate beyond the average person of his profession. During the post game show when Todd Kalas told him to go enjoy the fireworks with the family Pena looked genuinely thankful towards Kalas for the generic wishes. I'm not accusing Kalas of not meaning the well wishes, but I think he would've said it to any player.

It was a small moment, but it reminded me of how amazing Pena's 2007 was. The humble giant with the powerful swing and the surreal summer bombing fest. Through July 4th Pena had 19 homers and an OPS over 1.000 last season, many were starting to think a 40 homerun season was possible. Pena ended up with 46 and a three year 24 million dollar extension in hand, completing the Disney movie.

This year has been more along the lines of a Michael Bay movie, at times it seems Pena's bat is nothing other than a computer generated image. When Pena has connected though the ball is either exploding with a catwalk, colliding with a shifted fielders glove, or obliterating a fan's hand in the bleachers. Tonight he sent one cowhide to the deep abyss of the center field batter's eye, but in his prior at-bat flew one to the warning track.

The only difference between these two swings seems to be the pitch and the result. Pena's homerun came on an 88 MPH fastball on the outside of the plate after a B.J. Upton walk. His sacrifice fly was on a 85 MPH changeup which was similarly placed on both, Pena's bat, and the plate. One flew more than 404 feet and the other just shy of 322.

Outside of Pena's homerun per flyball ratio falling even below his career average, something that should progress to the mean, nothing seems inherently flawed about Pena's game. His walk rate isn't that far off from his career and his strikeout rate will seemingly come down. Pena is likely going to end up with an OPS near .840 and with 30 plus homeruns.

If that prediction comes to tuition Pena will rank in the third tier of first baseman production with Prince Fielder, James Loney, and Miguel Cabrera. The first tier featuring four with OPSes over .900 and the second tier with five players over .850. There is no shame in being a top 12 first baseman in this league, not when your production is coming at a price of roughly 8 million annually.

Pena's BABIP on the road is a measly .222 which will soar up following the all-star break and his home BABIP is .329, which may or may not sink slightly. One thing we did learn from last season is that Pena will hit roughly the same on home as he will on the road, so there's no dome bias.

Tonight Pena went 2-4 with five runs batted in and only a single strikeout and Pena increased his OPS by .018 points. Perhaps more importantly though, we got to see Pena smile again which means things are going right.

Happy 4th all, today will mark the debut of the Cajun God:

Photo by SRQMan

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These things seem to come in spurts, remember how Longoria/Niemann popped up within a few days of each other?

A scout told me Brignac projects as Stephen Drew with "More power, less OBP", something which makes my head hurt when you consider Drew's .295 OBP this season. He also said Brignac won't cost you any runs at shortstop but isn't necessarily above average when compared to other six holers.

PECOTA has Brignac at .238/.296/.405 this season, an OPS of .701 which puts him between supposed offensive juggernauts Julio Lugo and Derek Jeter, not too shabby for a 22 year old. The top comparisons are Brandon Phillips, Pokey Reese, and Kelly Johnson thrown in. Really all of his comparisons are all over the place, for every Carlos Beltran there's a Nic Jackson, and with a player this young it's really hard to judge his future.

Brignac would seemingly be able to stick at shortstop long term, but my question is will his bat hold up? His home/road splits favor Durham strongly, including a large jump in OBP which seems a bit odd. Brignac should get most of the playing time over Ben Zobrist for the next two weeks and could force his way into a starting job.

You would think this would get tiring, but not really. From Jayson Stark:

• Scouting bureau: One scout's review of Rays third baseman Evan Longoria: "It took Carl Crawford five years to get the feel for the game this guy got in five minutes."

There are far too many things to mock from this quote, so I'll just move on to the stuff people care about.

But Fuentes is so versatile, he might be the only reliever on the market who could be a closer, eighth-inning set-up man or situational left-hander. So he will get moved. The price tag, according to one club: "One good piece."

The Rockies seem to always have a need in center, I don't think Desmond Jennings would be necessary, perhaps Fernando Perez and a pitching prospect?

One team that seems especially interested in Bay is Tampa Bay.

Unrelated somewhat, but doesn't the Jeff Niemann "snub" all but signal that he's going to get traded in one of these deals?

The Mitch Talbot era in St. Petersburg turned out to be a short one, as he was demoted back to Triple A Durham before even throwing a pitch as the Rays made a flurry of off-day roster moves. SS Jason Bartlett has been placed on the 15 Day DL due to a right knee sprain that he suffered in yesterday's win over Boston. Since he was the only shortstop on the roster, the Rays called up not one, but two players to take his place. Ben Zobrist begins a third tour of duty with the team, while more intriguingly, top prospect Reid Brignac gets the call.

More on this move a bit later on, but I can't possibly seeing anyone but Brignac getting the bulk of the playing time at shortstop in Bartlett's place. Lou Piniella doesn't manage this team anymore, so unlike B.J. Upton's poorly-handled debut in 2004, I imagine the Rays will set out with a plan to see Brignac get regular playing time. Zobrist is their middle infield insurance policy, and quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick, given the tumult that an injury to Bartlett has provoked. I'm sort of disappointed to see that Talbot won't get an extended opportunity to prove himself at the major league level, but I guess the need for roster flexibility on the infield was the paramount concern.

As the team has continued its success into July, the Rays name seems to find its way into more and more trade rumors. Every year you see teams that are making deadline moves to bolster themselves for a late-summer playoff run. With the Rays playing like they are, everyone is waiting to see what moves go down. I just wonder whether or not it is really necessary to make a deal.

Quite often in deadline deals you will see teams trading for bullpen help. After watching the Rays this season, do we really need to add any more arms to our bullpen. Even with Percival and Reyes out, we still have quite the formidable pen. Grant Balfour has come up from AAA and brought his success along with him. You also have to consider what we could get in return for our bullpen and at what cost. To add another big stopper to the bullpen, it is going to cost the Rays some of our farm depth, which we hold like Frodo and the ring. Would anyone we trade for really be an improvement over the likes of a Wade Davis, David Price, or Mitch Talbot?

I have also heard the idea floated around that we could use the help of a veteran starter to hold down the back end of our rotation. While the back of our rotation could possibly use some help, they have still been doing a good job thus far. With Garza coming on strong, this gives us a very solid 1,2,3 rotation to take into the playoffs, if the situations arises. Jackson and Sonnanstine have had their ups and downs, but as a pair have been above-average 4 and 5 pitchers. You also have to consider the possibility of seeing Price or Davis being added to the rotations late in the season. If Price continues to pitch like he has, he would most likely be an upgrade or equal in value to nearly anyone we would acquire. More importantly, it would allow the team to not shell out any of the guarded farm depth.

Position wise the team has been solid everywhere from 1-9. The one area where we could use help is possibly in the outfield. The need for a right-handed bat has become more and more clear. However, I do not think the situation is as pressing as it is made out to be. As I have noted in the past, we have received some of best production from the RF/DH slots. An upgrade for Gomes could definitely be found on the market, but we have to be cautious to not give up too much for a minimal upgrade. If the Rays do make a trade, this is where I feel they should look to upgrade, but they have to keep their eye on the future at all times.

I have read and heard many times that the Rays have to make a move and take advantage of their depth in the farm system. I think the best way to take advantage of our depth is to hold on to it and not share it with anyone else. If they can make a deal that improves the team by not risking any major assets, then they should absolutely make it. They should not make a deal just because they are in a playoff race. The team as is has won 52 games before Independence Day, and I think they have been doing just fine with the guys they've got.

 

Heard this: Right now, the Red Sox and Rays essentially have no interest in completing a trade for C.C. Sabathia, because of other concerns. For Boston there may be a developing need for a bat, depending on how David Ortiz recovers from his wrist injury, as well as bullpen help, and for Tampa Bay the priority is going to be a right-handed hitting outfielder -- someone like the Pirates' Xavier Nady -- and perhaps some bullpen help.

Buster Olney via MMLBTr. So, unlike the Dan Boyle rumors, these can finally be placed underground, correct? I just wish Justin Ruggiano would get his shot, and if the team does get Nady or someone of his ilk what happens with Gomes?

Potpourri of Acquisitions

For all the talk about how this team is built "through the draft" let's examine the breakdown on the 25 (plus a few disabled players) man roster:

Drafted by the Rays - Wheeler, Sonnanstine, Shields, Hammel, Longoria, Gomes, Riggans, Upton, Crawford.

Traded for - Garza, Kazmir, Bartlett, Navarro, Aybar, Gross, Balfour, Howell, Talbot, Wheeler

Free agent - Iwamura, Reyes, Percival, Floyd, Hinske, Pena, Miller, Glover.

Draft Notes

- The Rays are apparently going to "go hard" after Ryan Carpenter.

- 41st round pick Brett Parsons is transferring to Texas A&M and will not be signing with the Rays.

- Same with 49th round pick Kash Kalowski.

Rays All Stars

Dioner Navarro and Evan Longoria are the most deserving, both placing second in AL EqA for their respective positions and only behind Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez at that. B.J. Upton is behind Josh Hamilton and Grady Sizemore, and somewhat oddly the man who started over the -- at the time -- injured Upton, Placido Polanco, is actually behind Akinori Iwamura. Scott Kazmir, Dan Wheeler, and J.P. Howell should get consideration, but I'd only expect Kazmir to go, if any of the Rays pitchers.

Some Rumors Aren't Worthy of Posting

Geoff Baker threw the Rays name in as a team that could be interested in one of the Mariners relief arms, he names Arthur Rhodes and Roy Corcoran, but also hints that Mark Lowe and Sean Green could be available. Rhodes brings nothing that Miller doesn't top, Corcoran is not good at all, Lowe throws upper 90's but very well could do so blindfolded (nearly 5 BB/9), and Green is big righty who isn't having a bad season, but the Rays have better arms in their hands in AAA.

Flamethrowers Inc.

For those wondering the hardest thrower on the Rays staff is Grant Balfour who sits at an average of 94.1, tied with Billy Wagner and ironically enough Seth McClung. Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza are the hardest throwing starters for the Rays and rank inside of hte top 20 (as two other pair of teammates do) with Jackson at 93.7 and Garza at 93.3. For those wondering, Sonnanstine's average is just shy of 87.

 

That's pretty much it from me unless something breaks. In all likelihood there will be something posted tomorrow besides the gameday thread, but don't expect anything ground breaking. Otherwise consider this an open thread like last week.

Where it began, I can't begin to know when
But then I know it's growing strong
Oh, wasn't the spring, whooo
And spring became the summer
Who'd believe you'd come along

 

WORDS. DO. NOT. DESCRIBE. THIS.

via www.fangraphs.com

via i29.tinypic.com

 

Evan Longoria owns my heart.

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Dear Scott Kazmir, make more of this happen please:

 

Oh and for some good pre-game reading: Bendix on the Rays, Yanks, and Sox schedules.

The fine folk at Baseball Prospectus have not changed their logo to this:

But it may as well be Rays day at BP. I covered the Nate Silver article last post, but since two more have been added. Joe Sheehan on the Rays defense and John Perrotto talking about the change attitude, including this quote:

"The great thing about it is that the people in the Tampa Bay area are really starting to get into this team," Rays right fielder Eric Hinske said. "When we go out to restaurants and other public places people are starting to notice us. I know that’s never happened before and it’s nice. This franchise has gone through some tough times, and it’s nice to see things changing."

We saw about that aspect not too long ago around these parts. For now "it's nice", but wait until ESPN starts sending their cameras down here for each game and spends a segment or two on you each episode of Sportscenter or Baseball Tonight, then will it be as nice? Absolutely.

Baseball and political projections guru Nate Silver has a subscriber only piece on the Rays, here's a taste:

Addition by Subtraction: In contrast to last year, the Rays have just six players who have compiled a negative VORP in any amount of playing time, and all but Jason Bartlett have played sparingly. The combined negative VORP accumulated by those Rays has been just 12.8 this year, as opposed to their 157.9 figure from a year ago.

Quite telling, one of the other large topics covered in the article was the defensive upgrades, including Jason Bartlett.