Diamondbacks

Total news: 855
Last news: December 31, 1969 19:00:00

Total news: 10
Last news: December 31, 1969 19:00:00

Okay, most of my creative energy today went into a lengthy post in this diary, so pardon me if I keep this one relatively brief as a result. Not least because I didn't even get to sit down today at work, before being asked if I'd "mind logging in early". Tomorrow morning, I will enter the building at 9am on the dot - more by accident than design, admittedly, but might as well make a statement. Maybe I should ask them to shift my schedule to 8am-4:30pm? Has potential - save days like tomorrow, when I have to drop Mrs. SnakePit off - and so must leave the house at, ugh, 7 am. Okay, scratch that idea...

Hopefully going to my second spring training game of the year on Friday; Mrs. SnakePit's cousin is coming in from California, and she's a big Oakland fan, so we're going to try and get tickets for the A's-Diamondbacks game at Phoenix Muni. Imagine, at this late stage, all the good seats are gone, but it should still be fun, even if we're sprawled on the outfield grass. It's an evening game, so the temperatures should be very pleasant, and it seems a good way to finish the week. We will, of course, be wearing our his 'n' hers jerseys to the event: no opportunity for self-promotion left un..er, unpromoted.

Not strictly D-backs related, but there's a charity screening tomorrow in Scottsdale of Chasing October, a docu-comedy about Matt Liston's crusade to take the Cubs to the 2003 World Series "by any means necessary". According to the press release, "The film is a hilarious must-see that will bring joy to all Cubs fans." Hang on, the 2003 season? The one which Steve Bartman destroyed, five outs from the Promised Land? Shurely shome mishtake. Certainly, I think it may be the first time that it, "Cubs fans" and "joy" have ever been mentioned in the same paragraph. "Hilarious," I grant you: I remember vividly, how we held our aching sides, and laughed, long into the night... :-)

Anyway, the screening is 8 pm tomorrow, at the Harkins Camelview, down by Fashion Square Mall. It's free but they encourage a $10 donation, for Project 3000, a charity formed by Cubs slugger Derrek Lee and Boston Celtics CEO Wyc Grousbeck (whose children both suffer from Lebers Congenital Amaurosis. I have no idea what that is, but kids + illness = give till it frickin' hurts, as far as I'm concerned). Lee and director Liston will be present there, and at a postscreening reception in the Upper Deck Sports Bar (4224 N. Craftsman Court, Scottsdale). Regrettably, I won't be able to go, but the film also plays at the Camelview starting Friday, so we might take it in there. Popcorn and schadenfreude sold separately.

As yesterday, we kept our scheduled starter out of today's game against a divisional rival: Hernandez 2.0 pitched a simulated game out of the public eye against minor-leaguers. Which, given his last outing, was probably wise for all concerned... :-) He threw 65 pitches, and reports from both him and catcher Chris Snyder suggest it went well. "I felt good," said Hernandez. "I was working outside and inside, and everything went well. I just treated it like a regular game and gave 100% on every pitch." Snyder, showing hitherto unexpected linguistic talents, described it as "Bueno."

Instead of Livan, Nippert took the field against the Rockies, and his control was a bit off: the MLB.com report says "Nippert impresses", but three walks and two hits in three innings seems a bit unimpressive. Julio, however, was bringing the heat, touching 97 mph and he pitched two hitless frames. Lyon gave the Rockies five hits and three earned runs in his two innings, though was the victim of some squibs and seeing-eye hoppers; he and Slaten both picked up blown saves, with the latter allowing four hits and a run in two innings. Slaten did get the win, with Kinsey notching the save, despite allowing two hits.

Seems like an exciting game: we were 1-0 up, tied at one, 3-1 up, 3-4 down, 5-4 up, tied at five, and finally won it in the tenth, Robby Hammock driving in the go-ahead run with an RBI single. The Rockies outhit the D-backs, 13-12, but only one of theirs went for extra bases: we mustered five doubles and a triple. Quentin had two of those, with Hairston and Ojeda also having two-hit days. Hairston's included a triple down the left-field line, which suggests he was taking demands for baserunning aggressiveness seriously. Chris Carter had the interesting line, 0 AB, 0 H, 2 R, thanks to a pair of walks, our only free passes of the day. First time in a while our hitters walked less than they struck out, while the pitchers allowed more walks than they fanned.

Over on DBBP, Shoewizard was expressing some concern about the progress of Young, saying he "has some work to do this spring. I'm not liking the at bats he's having." Hmmm. At least there's no shortage of depth there: if worst comes to the worst, we send Young down to Tucson, move Byrnes back to CF, and Hairston becomes our everyday left-fielder. Probably little offensive downside, might even be a slight improvement. Of course, I'm hoping Young does live up to expectations (and we work out some way to get Hairston into the lineup too), but it's nice to know we have options there - literally!

ESPN writes about Brandon Webb. The headline, "Webb gives hitters that sinking feeling," gives you some idea of how much new information can be found within the piece. You are invited, however, to guess who provided this quote regarding Webb's starts: "There are times when you want to pull up a lawn chair, order up a drink from the bar and check out all the chicks at the pool." It was, of course, Eric Byrnes: that one's getting enshrined permanently in our quotes file. Speaking of EB, diamondbacks.com gives him some love, saying his "versatility puts him in impressive company," reminding us the only other outfielder to hit 25 HR with 25 SB last year was Alfonso Soriano. Trust Eric to burst the bubble himself, saying, "Let's not mention the fact he had over 20 more homers and 16 more steals."

First batch of reassignments went down, with infielder Mark Reynolds, catcher Josh Ford, plus pitchers Matt Elliott and Greg Smith all getting sent to Minor League camp. Smith got the best report from Melvin, who said, "He's a guy who we obviously love... When you look at our pitching prospects, especially starters, this is a guy that jumps out at you, and a guy who came out and performed well." A good season in the minors, and come next March, I think we can expect Smith's stay at Spring Training to be significantly longer in 2008.

Something different tomorrow: an interview with Chris Constancio of the Hardball Times and FirstInning.com, who'll be talking about the 2007 projections as well as the D-backs prospects. Should be up around lunchtime. - [Read more]

Well, not so lazy, I guess: I've been fairly productive, actually, got three film reviews written, and called my parents in Scotland, to speak to them before they depart for their latest holiday in Sri Lanka [I know - not our kind of holiday destination either. We think they're really undercover agents for MI6]. The backyard also got tidied up in preparation for next Saturday's barbecue. Or is barbeque? Or perhaps even B-B-Q? Dammit, I don't know: it's not something that you need to know how to spell in Britain.

That's because there are only about two days per summer where outdoor cooking of any kind is a viable proposition, and you never know when they'll be. Such events are, in general, therefore doomed to fail. I recall, vividly, standing around a barbecue as a steady drizzle descended, muttering encouraging comments like, "I think it almost caught light that time." Okay, Arizona might tilt too far the other way: during summer here, you don't actually need a barbecue to cook burgers, since the bonnet of your car will do very well. But, in general, it's definitely a better climate for that kind of things.

Two Cactus League games to report on, from yesterday and today. Saturday's game proved very disappointing for Enrique Gonzalez: he got thrashed about by the Brewers, as we blew a 6-1 lead, going down by the odd run in seventeen. Dana Eveland got the start for Arizona, against his old team, and pitched solidly enough, allowing one run on three hits over three innings. But EnGon got lit up, to the tune of nine hits and seven runs (six earned) in 2.1 innings, thanks in part to two homers. Valverde came in and while his line looks okay (one hit and two walks in 1.2 innings), he surrendered the lead, as part of the Brewers four-run sixth. Cruz took the loss, giving up a walk in the eighth, which was followed by an RBI double.

Our offense delivered a better fate, pounding out 17 hits. Callaspo went 3-for-4, including a homer, and Byrnes, batting leadoff, had a pair of doubles and two RBI. Hairston and Drew each went 2-for-4, with Hairston getting his third of spring. Tracy added his first shot of the season, a three-run shot off Brewers starter Jeff Suppan in the third. The signatory of the biggest contract in Brewers history (four year, $42m) struggled through three innings, allowing five runs before his team-mates bailed him out. We had the tying run at third in the ninth, with one out, but Turnbow retired the next two to preserve the win for Milwaukee.

That poor outing may not have totally condemned Enrique to Tucson, though it probably can't have helped his cause. Bob Melvin has been cautious, saying nothing will be decided until starters begin to go five innings or thereabout, after Wednesday's off-day. Said Melvin, "Two- or three-inning stints aren't as good a read, because a lot of times, you can get away with two pitches, whereas [for] a starter going into the fifth inning, all your pitches come into play. That's when we start taking a little bit [of a] harder look at the competition." Here are the lines posted by the candidates thus far, usual warnings apply for the tiny sample size:

          IP  H BB  K ER  Eveland  6.0  6  0  2  1  Ed.Gon   5.0  6  1  2  2  En.Gon   5.1 10  0  1  6  MacLane  6.0  5  4  3  2  Nippert  4.0  2  1  3  0  Owings   4.0  3  2  4  1

Thus far, EdGon has done nothing to dissuade anyone from thinking he'll be the permanent number five, not least because he's out of options so can't be sent to Tucson without being placed on the waiver wire - and that ain't gonna happen. A little more interesting when things get down to the temporary replacement for the Big Unit. Eveland has been perhaps the most impressive so far, but he's far from a lock, with Nippert and Owings in the same area. Nippert has more experience; Eveland would be another left-hander. Owings doesn't appear yet to be on the 40-man roster, but we do have a spare slot.

Today, we faced our divisional rivals in the Padres, which may explain why most of our regular pitching staff (not least Brandon Webb) were not to be found. No point giving the Padres any more at-bats against them, than absolutely necessary. So, it'd be little surprise if there was much checking of the scorecard at Tucson Electric Park this afternoon, for the following names: MacLane, Carrasco, Smith, Peguero, Bajenaru and Daigle. That entire lineup had 13.1 innings of major-league exposure last year - and all but one of that came from Casey. Doesn't seem a good omen for him making the 25-man roster on Opening Day.

MacLane pitched two innings, and was ho-hum, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk. Carrasco followed him, and did strike out four in his two frames, getting the victory, but also gave up two runs, on two hits and a walk. After Smith, Peguero pitched a perfect seventh, and Bajenaru struck out two, round a walk and a hit. Daigle did let the Padres score twice, but both were unearned, thanks to an error from left-fielder Brown.

Byrnes batted leadoff again (sigh...), and had another good day (double sigh...), going 3-for-3, including a wind-assisted homer, scoring twice. Hudson went 2-for-2, and had a pair of walks (now, that's a leadoff hitter - look, I'll repeat it in bold) and had a pair of walks, while Barden also had two hits. But Arizona seemed to get a lot of help from the Padres, and we only notched five RBIs, despite scoring ten runs. Seven walks in total for the Diamondbacks, and Upton stole his first base of the year, though later hit into a double-play.

There was really a game and a half today, with Brandon Webb and others taking part in a 'B'-squad game in the morning. That seems standard practice for Melvin, as Hernandez 2.0 will experience the same thing tomorrow, as his team-mates play the Rockies. There's no official box-score available, but Webb pitched four innings, allowing two runs on five hits and two walks against a strong White Sox lineup. He said, "I walked a couple again. I don't know where that's coming from. And I threw a couple of pitches I probably wouldn't have thrown in a regular game, made some mistakes." The walks are a bit odd: all told, including today's B-game, that's five in nine innings, way more than usual. But it's far too early to panic.

In the same game, Chris Snyder went 3-for-4, with a walk, two RBIs and two runs. He came a triple short of the cycle, but never gave that serious thought, saying "I think the last triple I hit might have been in Little League, if I hit one there." We scurried to the record books, and found he is, in fact, mistaken. Snyder hit, not one but two of them in Lancaster during his time there in 2003. Since then, however: 1140 at-bats, 282 hits...no three-baggers.

Finally, Jack Magruder in the Tribune looks at our rotation, finding it "among the most durable in baseball." Eight pitchers in the majors have made 101 or more starts since 2004: four of them will play for the Diamondbacks this year. Interesting comment from pitching coach Bryan Price: "We had a lot of games that unfortunately got out of control in the first half of the season in the first two or three innings last year, and that really put us behind the eight-ball." Anyone who remembers our first-inning troubles (outscored 144-70 there last year) will know that's something we definitely want to avoid. - [Read more]

[Click for enlarged version: Adobe Acrobat format]

My favorite anonymous source sent me the above flyer, for an event at the Fort McDowell Casino later this month. Yes, for $100, you can have the opportunity to play poker with the Huge Manatee! Diamondback fans probably are aware that there is undeniable leisure potential in Russ Ortiz and poker. However, most would prefer applying the poker, with liberal force, to the kneecaps of our former starter. Or, possibly even more fun, the insertion of said poker - ideally glowing Sedona-red - into any orifice not filled at that moment with a donut. How's that for a Royal Flush?

Now, charitable endeavor is very laudable and all that. But, even if he put up every penny of the $20,000 guaranteed prize pot, it pales as benevolence, compared to the $7.9m he received from the D-backs in 2006, for 22.2 innings of major-league pitching, so awful, he had to be canned totally. I worked it out: we paid more than $30,000 for every strike from Ortiz last year. So pardon me if I'm unimpressed by less than one good pitch's worth of charity. I'd never play poker with Ortiz, given his shameless swindling of my team. Know how many quality starts we got for our $33 million? Seven. Would you trust someone like that at a card-table?

However, Mrs SnakePit does have a voucher for two nights' stay at the Fort McDowell casino, courtesy of her work. So the idea appeals of going there for that weekend, and staging some kind of protest at the event. Possibly leaping from the crowd to belabor Ortiz with baseball bats, shouting "Russ, what is the frequency?" at him. Or - less feloniously - just sitting there in our new Diamondback shirts, holding a large suitcase on our laps, with the words "$33 million" written on it in blood. Or maybe just waving a box of donuts at Russ and squealing occasionally. What sort of noise does a manatee make, anyway? Breath, Jim...breathe, and take comfort from Nick Piecoro's blog:

Moving on. One significant inning proved enough for the Diamondbacks in yesterday's game vs. the White Sox. The third started with Young and Callaspo going deep, back-to-back, and after groundouts by Hairston and Clark grounded out, Hudson tripled, Quentin doubled, CaGon singled, and Barden doubled. Nice to see us hitting for the cycle in a single inning - and almost managing it with two men out! The four runs which resulted were the sum total of the run-scoring offense, but proved more than adequate, as our pitchers produced another good outing, restricting Chicago to just a pair of runs. So we won 4-2, which runs our franchise spring record against them to 45-18, with a couple of ties.

Edgar Gonzalez allowed one run on two hits and a walk over three innings, his only mistake a slider that the White Sox's Brian Anderson smacked to left-center. "I'm very happy. Every outing I feel much better," EdGon said, picking up his second win of the season. Micah Owings followed him out there, allowed one run in two innings, and the bullpen of Julio, Lyon, Harville and Schultz shut Chicago out the rest of the way. The last-named had the most impressive line, retiring the opposition in order, with K, K, groundout, but by then most of the regulars were out of the game.

Carlos Gonzales was the offensive star, going 3-for-3. Callaspo went 2-for-3 with the home run in the fourth; Chris Young's homer came as he led off the lineup. Conor Jackson was scratched: it's just a case of the stomach flu, so shouldn't keep him out very long. He should probably lay off boiled eggs for a while though... Not quite such a good result today for AZ, with Enrique Gonzalez getting smacked about like Naomi Campbell's personal assistant. But I'll save the gory details of that one for tomorrow.

However, I should mention, before that game the Big Unit threw batting practice [insert sarky comment here by biggerunit1 - something like "And how was that different from most starts last season?"] 52 pitches against various prospects, with only a couple sharply hit out of the infield, according to AP reports. He said afterwards, "I'm pleased with where I'm at right now, as I have been with every step. To not have any real setbacks other than maybe a stiff back here and there, I think that's to be expected, especially with the workload I've been doing this quickly. I'm pretty pleased." Still seems to be on course for a full-on return in the second half of April.

Seems like all this optimism over our chances this year might be infectious. Sports Illustrated now appears to have caught it from Fox Sports, as Jon Heyman picks us as his sleeper team and writes, "I truly believe the Diamondbacks can win the NL pennant for three very real reasons: 1) they have surprisingly solid starting pitching; 2) they have as fine a crop of young major league-ready positional players as anyone; and 3) the National League is eminently winnable." Meanwhile, Scout.com compares the rosters of the Giants and D-backs, and finds only one spot where the Giants have the edge, at short-stop. Better hurry and take advantage of those Las Vegas odds while they last: I sense they will be sharply reduced, if we live up to these expectations.

Warm, fuzzy piece in the Republic on Counsell's move to Milwaukee. He genuinely seems to harbor no ill-will towards the D-backs...unlike certain others I could mention, despite what they may say in public. Here's Craig's thoughts: "The last day, for me, I was treated like a king. It was unbelievable. I just consider myself a major league baseball player, nothing special. But the fans treated me certainly as something more than that... I wish them well, man. I wish Bob Melvin great. He was a big believer, a good friend. I hope they make the playoffs." Best of luck in Milwaukee, Mr. Counsell.

New poll up, on who'll have the highest BA this year, so that closes the voting on the "who should bat leadoff?" question. In keeping with Bob Melvin's approach to lineup construction, nothing was really decided - except, a decisive 93% of respondents stated it shouldn't be Eric Byrnes. Stephen Drew (32%) was the most popular choice; he's making his case in Spring Training, with five walks in less than 20 plate-appearances, helping him to an .556 on-base percentage - double that of Hudson. Of the other candidates, Hudson and Young only have a single walk each, thus far, and Eric Byrnes has three. - [Read more]

This is somewhat odd. The number of visitors to the site has basically doubled over the past few days. Normally, this is triggered by either a) big D'back news, or b) a link from another (more reputable) site. I'm not aware of a), and unfortunately, our SiteMeter referrals, where I check such things, is stuck showing visitors as of March 3rd, so I've no idea about b). Oh, well: wherever you came from, greeting. If you're a "n00b", as I believe the youth of today say, and want to leave a comment telling us how you heard about the SnakePit, that'd be nice. It'd make me less nervous our URL has been pinned to the board in the Tucson clubhouse...probably by Hairston. 8-)

Melvin has been addressing the lineup issue again, though as Nick Piecoro points out, more by saying how it won't look. Tracy won't hit fourth, and now, Drew won't bat leadoff. It's becoming more like a game of Clue than anything. The news it isn't Drew [in the library, with a candlestick...] will disappoint the 31% of SnakePit readers who voted him, at time of writing, as the best choice, just ahead of Chris Young. Piecoro reckons Hudson (third, on 26%, in our poll) is the most likely to fill the spot. Eric Byrnes, meanwhile, languishes in joint-last place with just 6% of the vote.

Shoewizard drew my attention to this article on Hardball Times, reviewing the lineup construction rules in The Book, which read, "Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality."

Okay, so it's been shown that lineup construction is not enormously significant: the difference in results from an optimal order and the very worst is only about one more run every six games. Still, using those rules, and the average OPS stats from yesterday's entry, what do we see? Three best hitters would be Quentin, Young and Tracy, in that order, going by OPS, with Jackson and Drew behind them, then it's Byrnes, Hudson and Snyder. I would have to say Quentin and Tracy are more likely to get on-base than Young - though in Q's case, a good number of the "walks" may leave bruises. That gives us the potential following lineup:

1. RF - Quentin, R
2. 3B - Tracy, L
3. SS - Drew, L
4. CF - Young, R
5. 1B - Jackson, R
6. LF - Byrnes, R
7. 2B - Hudson, S
8. C - Snyder, R
9. Pitcher

Looks not bad; maybe we should swap Jackson and Drew around, to break up the three right-handers in a row? Though the 'serving suggestion' above does somewhat echo Melvin's thoughts about Drew: "He can hit anywhere in the lineup and down the road he could be a (#3 hitter). So whether down the road is a year, a month, a week..." Of course, the lineup doesn't take into account batter RHP/LHP splits, which are worth taking into account, or batter-pitcher matchups - beloved by Melvin, but rarely are there enough recent plate-appearances to make those significant. I've a feeling we will see about the same 112 different lineups used by Melvin last year.

Certainly, if Byrnes was auditioning for the #1 spot today, it did not exactly go well: 0-for-2 with a pair of K's. He did get a walk though, and came round to score; I also note, interestingly, he was playing CF today, Young getting the day off. A good comeback from AZ: we were 4-0 down by the middle of the third, but used a seven-run fifth to turn things around, and added two more in the eighth after the Angels had made it a one-run game again. Final score, 10-7 to Arizona: Hammock went 2-for-2 with a three-run homer, and Montero went 2-for-3.

Scary moment in the third, when starter Doug Davis was hit on the left arm by a sharp comebacker, leading off the third. He left the game, but is expected to make his next scheduled start. He had given up three hits and a walk by that point, and ended up allowing three earned runs. Elliott relieved him for the rest of the third, and Nippert then got the win for two perfect innings of work. Daigle, Slaten, Peguero and Peña followed, with varying effectiveness, but again, I was pleased to note the healthy K:BB ratio of 9:1 put up by our pitchers.

Another step forward for Randy Johnson, after a 55-pitch bullpen session Wednesday. "I'm not worried about my back any more. Not that I ever was, but when I go out there now and get the ball I try to do what I've done throughout my career, throw strikes and get batters out. Tonight it will get a little stiff, and it works its way out. It's building tolerance." Next step, probably at least two sessions of batting practice, before he'll be ready to take the hill in an actual game.

Interesting wrinkle in the lineup, with the news that Callaspo may do some time in the outfield, once the roster becomes a more manageable size. The aim here is, apparently, to use the switch-hitting Alberto, to give us a few more options in the outfield. At the moment, DaVanon (injured) and Krynzel (out of options) are the only outfielders capable of batting left-handed, if the need arises. I'm thinking we may see many more situational moves this year, making use of the positional flexibility provided by Hammock, Callaspo, etc.

It seems like FoxSports.com has become the Diamondbacks' version of Pravda, pumping out glowing reports with almost-suspicious frequency. johngordonma drew our attention to this one, which says our prospects "are the talk of the Cactus League", calls Carlos Gonzalez "a bigger, stronger, left-handed hitting version of Carlos Beltran," (!) and quotes Josh Byrnes as saying Hairston's chances of appearing on the waiver wire are "zero percent." That's the kind of thing it's a pleasure to read [especially when I left my coffee in the car...which Mrs. SnakePit has just driven off in!]

It also says Dave Krynzel, "looks stronger than he did with the Brewers," and hints at a possible trade with the Marlins. Florida also need relief help, so rumblings are circulating about something like Krynzel, Julio and cash to them. Word at DBBP is we'd be looking for a couple of high-ceiling rotation prospects, an area in which the Marlins are loaded. Be nice if we could parlay Krynzel, basically a throw-in for the Estrada trade, into anything significant.

Finally, we have a runner-up in the contest for Nausea-Inducing Story of Spring-Training: the winner there, of course, being "Huge Manatee pitches three perfect innings for Gnats". Nick Piecoro tells us that, "Players and staff pooled together $5,000 for rookie catcher Josh Ford if he could eat 40 hardboiled eggs in an hour before the game against the Rangers. Ford came close. He put down 38 1/2 of them before he, uh, had to stop. It sounded like most of his teammates were going to pay up anyway." Presumably by sliding the cash under the firmly-closed door of the locker-room. All together now: "What we've got here, is failure to communicate..." - [Read more]

I'm not sure I like this turning up to work early thing. Oh, it's fine in theory: Mrs. SnakePit has to be at work 30 minutes before me, so I get dropped off on the way to work, and then have about an hour to kill before formally starting to earn my keep. [In case you're wondering why I don't drop her off - the answer, in one word, is "parking".] Surf a little, finish off the blog entry with the overnight news, drink my coffee, and generally, ease my way gently into the day. It's all good.

However, the reality usually involves the morning supervisor coming over about twenty minutes in, slapping me on the shoulder and asking if I'd mind logging in early because we're a bit short-handed. He does have the courtesy to look sorry to be asking, but even though I like the guy, I've developed a nervous twitch when I see him coming. I do wonder about the staffing too: mornings seem to have far fewer people than necessary. Today, I had a woman who'd been on hold for ninety-two minutes. [She was British: hey, we know how to queue...] And sadder still, I couldn't even really help her since she wanted help with Dreamweaver, a program we don't support. I still talked to her for thirty minutes, largely out of politeness.

So, yesterday's entry ended up being somewhat terse, and slapped up there during my thirty-minute lunch break, in lieu of...oh, I dunno, actually eating. It's clearly going to take some fine management of time skills once the season starts, and there are a lot more evening games to handle.

Let's hope Hernandez 2.0 is correct about always having a bad spring. He certainly had a poor outing last night, allowing ten hits in 3.1 innings, leading to nine runs, seven earned, as we were beaten by Texas, 9-8. The bullpen pitched well, however, allowing four hits in 4.2 innings, Medders, Murphy, Bajenaru and Carrasco striking out seven. Again, decent control, with no walks from our arms. Offensively, Carter went 2-for-2 with a triple, and Richar had a seventh-inning homer. Thompson and Montero were both 2-for-3, the former driving in two runs.

A little while ago, during a debate in the comments with Diamondhacks, I made the claim that the 2007 Diamondbacks were better at every position than the 2006 version. A brave claim, but how likely is it to be borne out? Firstly, we have the following chart, which shows the 2006 OPS from the various positions, along with the NL median value. The chart is ordered, lowest to highest, in order of 2006 production from AZ:

  2006    AZ    NL    SS:   .756  .744  1B:   .767  .866  C:    .773  .742  2B:   .788  .740  3B:   .793  .828  LF:   .800  .826  RF:   .800  .796  CF:   .804  .744  

The gulf there at first-base is startling, almost a hundred points of OPS. This isn't all Jackson's fault, since the figures there were dragged down by the woeful performance of Tony Clark and, to a lesser extent, Shawn Green, who appeared in 12 games there. Third-base and left-field were also positions where production was below-average, but this was balanced by good results from second-base and center-field in particular, but also catcher and short-stop. Right-field was almost dead-on, though not much thanks to Green there either.

Next, I took the expectations of five prediction systems for our players there this season: those were James, CHONE, Marcel, ZIPS and Hardball Times. I excluded our community projections, because let's face it, they may be just a wee bit biased. :-). The next chart shows the 2006 production from our everyday starter, along with the low, high and average OPS from the five projections for our expected everyday starter for the upcoming year.

               2006  Low  High   Avg 2007   SS: Counsell .674 .767  .851  .798 Drew  1B: Jackson  .794 .801  .841  .814 Jackson  C:  Estrada  .772 .701  .778  .737 Snyder  2B: Hudson   .809 .764  .788  .774 Hudson  3B: Tracy    .794 .801  .827  .815 Tracy  LF: Gonzalez .795 .766  .785  .776 Byrnes  RF: Green    .778 .806  .843  .831 Quentin  CF: Byrnes   .795 .760  .861  .819 Young

Now, it isn't an exact comparison, because obviously, the players named are not going to play all 162 games. The low figure for first-base last year, for example, included not only Jackson, but also Clark and Green, which dragged the stats down markedly. Still, the results as calculated show we can hope for better production from most places. That's clearest from SS and 1B, though RF, CF and 3B should also improve significantly, and 2B, LF and C do show a decrease, but at the last two positions, we have very strong alternative candidates, in Hairston + Montero respectively. Scott is predicted to have an average OPS of .818 (range .753 to .856), and Miguel at .768 (.727 to .795). Both figures are better than the expected incumbents, and close to or ahead of the production obtained in 2006.

Even if they form part of the bench, they'll boost production from there, and our replacement players would overall seem to be significantly better. Outside those two, here are the actual 2006 figures and the anticipated ones for 2007, matching them up role-for-role as best as possible.
Clark 2006 = .643; Clark 2007 = .818 (range .787 - .847)
Easley 2006 = .741; Callaspo 2007 = .742 (.720 - .782)
A.Green 2006 = .560; Hammock 2007 = .756 (.741 - .770)
DaVanon 2006 = .819; DaVanon 2007 = .762 (.747 - .785)
Two huge improvements, one about the same (albeit with a better glove, I'd say) and DaVanon the only one expected to show any dropoff in production. So, I suppose, that I might be prepared to concede, and therefore my claim that every position will be better is not strictly valid. Oh, well. :-)

Another factor which I did consciously include when making my claim, was defensive skills. And I think that most positions will be, to varying degrees, stronger there in 2007. Hudson definitely got better as the year went on, adjusting to natural turf and the NL style of play; Byrnes should, at the very least, show a damn sight more hustle than Gonzo; and Estrada's "issues" behind the plate are now a matter of near-public record. Jackson and Tracy will have a year more experience at their positions, Drew should match Counsell, Quentin already showed he's better than Green, and I look forward to seeing Young in centre.

And then, there's the rotation, which I don't have time to discuss in detail (a red light is blinking on the phone in front of me, and I sense a restless stirring from the direction of the morning supe!). But, in brief:
Webb 2006 < Webb 2007
Batista 2006 < Johnson 2007
Vargas 2006 < Davis 2007
Hernandez 1.0 2006 < Hernandez 2.0 2007
EnGon 2006 < EdGon 2007

The bullpen is the only area where I'm a little concerned, not least because the only moves we've made have involved the loss of established arms, and there may be more to come, if Julio departs. Our depth in this area is certainly questionable, even if Slaten and Peña stick around. But the lack of motion in that area does bother me. I'd not be surprised if we do see some action to bring in solid relief help over the next couple of weeks.

Finally, I know we're big fans of Wikipedia here. Prepare to lose a lot of lunch-hours. For I bring you the official Wikipedia list of unusual articles... - [Read more]

Diamondbacks went down 5-3 to Seattle last night, in their first trip to the Valley. Not the best outing for Webb, who gave up three hits and three walks in three innings, resulting in two earned runs in the first. He was quite critical of his performance, saying, "I think I was rushing myself a little bit, getting on the side of the ball, working around it and getting more lateral movement instead of downward on the sinker. Walking three guys, I wasn't real happy about, but it's Spring Training. We're just trying to get our mechanics and legs... I got my work in."

Chad Harville followed with another shaky outing - three hits in his inning of work mean he is probably an early contender for the first round of cuts. But MacLane did well, and has now pitched four frames on one-hit ball. Valverde made his first game, since Papa became a Papa, giving up a slow roller that came round to score on a stolen base, wild pitch and groundout. Cruz ended the arms for us, and struck out two in his appearance. Kirk Gibson managed, in Melvin's absence, as he was attending a funeral.

Scott Hairston made a point, becoming the first D-back to hit more than one homer, a huge blast to left field in the second. That also gave him the early lead in RBI (5): while he's only 3-for-12, two of those have left the park. Arizona had just eight hits, but Quentin went 2-for-2 with an RBI. Upton drove in the third run with a ninth-inning single, and had a walk; Jackson matched him with a single and a free pass too.

An interesting note on the pitching market. Ex-Diamondback, Javier Vazquez, signed a three-year extension with the Chicago White Sox, which takes him through 2010, and for which he'll be paid $34.5m. That's $11.5m per year, for a starting pitcher whose ERA+ figures for the past three seasons have all been below-average, at 92, 99 and 96. It's not quite Gil Meche-ean in its lunacy, but it would seem to make the extension signed by Doug Davis (ERA+ of 122, 110 and 91) shine a little brighter.

Reason to hope Ortiz doesn't suck this year. If he's good, then he'll get a bigger contract for next season: we only have to pay him the difference between what he earns on the market, and what he was guaranteed from us. So if he gets a $3m deal for 2007, that will be $3m less that we'll have to shell out. Not sure if that's enough to make any significant change in my feelings regarding

Had a chance to scope out the Hardball Times projections for the D-backs this year, and there are some interesting points. If you want to see the whole set, you'll have to buy the book, but here are some highlights that stood out from the data.

• Byrnes vs. Hairston. Chalk up another vote for Scotty:
  Byrnes: .268/.319/.459 = .778 OPS
  Hairston: .261/.331/.478 = .809 OPS
  Obviously, Byrnes has the edge in stolen bases, but both men are rated +2 for fielding, so they don't view Hairston's defense as the black mark often quoted.

• Carlos Quentin, the human piñata. They expect 33 HBPs for Q this season. Only three players have reached that level since the nineteenth century, Craig Biggio (34 in 1997), Don Baylor (35 in 1986) and Ron Hunt, who somehow got plunked 50 times in 1971.

• Hardball Times our starting pitching. Well, some of them, anyway: Brandon Webb (ERA 3.02), Randy Johnson (3.43) and Dana Eveland (4.35) in particular. Hernandez 2.0 (4.98) and EdGon (5.05)...less so... And our bullpen is not viewed with much favor, only Valverde (3.88) seen as coming in under 4.00 this year.

• Small improvement for Tracy. OPS of .801, basically the same as the .794 last season: be interesting to see the LHP/RHP splits. He'll lead the team with 21 HR and 86 RBI, however. Conor Jackson's .285 will be the best average, just ahead of, surprisingly, O-Dawg at .281.

• Snyder's the man.... They're not very keen on Montero, who's expected to bat .249 with a .727 OPS. Snyder is predicted to hit .263 and post an OPS more than 50 points higher. And he gets better from there: by 2009, his OPS will match Chad Tracy!

• ...and Young isn't Only .238 for our new CF this season, and a .760 OPS. His defense is rated at -3, which I find hard to understand, but Stephen Drew gets the same score, and that also defies apparent expectations. I'm hoping to interview one of the authors in the next week, so will be quizzing them on how these figures are obtained.

• Quick hits for 2009. Looking down the line to the season after the season after next, Webb posts a 2.99 ERA, but only pitches 185 innings, going 13-6. Conor Jackson leads the team, batting .290, with an .834 OPS. Valverde gets 14 saves and a 3.71 ERA, with Lyon backing him up at 3.94.

• The Huge Manatee will continue to suck. Finally, I peeped nervously into the Giants section of the book, to see what they expect from Ortiz. They expect 5.12 for this season, and a little worse in the two years beyond that. I'd settle for that!

We hold the evil eye over the Giants in Spring Training: think yesterday's victory runs our record to something like 18 wins in 20 Cactus League games, since the Diamondbacks came into business. I'd be happier if we beat them that often when it actually counted: we're only 25-50 since 2003, and haven't won the season series against SF in the past five years. But based on Monday's result, that could be about to change, emphatically. Yeah, while it's totally meaningless, Spring Training, etc., any signs of Giants suckage are always welcome, and 44 runs allowed in five games [compare AZ's 27] is suckage par excellence. Especially when EnGon and four relievers combined on a four-hit shutout - with only two innings coming from pitchers generally expected to be on an Opening Day roster. [And that includes Julio, who may not be in an AZ uniform]

Enrique Gonzalez was first up, allowing only a double in his three innings of work. Dana Eveland, also permitted two bases in his three frames, only they came on two singles. And Lyon, Julio and Schultz one-hit the Giants the rest of the way, striking out three in their three innings combined - and by all accounts, the hit was a lucky swing on a 97 mph fastball from Julio. Another good point to note: 30 batters faced by the Diamondbacks' pitching staff, and no walks issued. Meanwhile, our hitters got eight free passes, including two for Chad Tracy, which is hopefully a sign that he is being patient at the plate.

Zito was a bit unlucky to take the loss, with the only run he allowed in three innings, coming home on a balk. Justin Upton smacked a home-run in the seventh, and Mark Reynolds had the interesting line, 0 AB, 0 H, 1 RBI, 1 R, I think due to a bases-loaded walk as part of our seven-run sixth. Chris Young batted leadoff, went 1-for-3 with a stolen base, but was also picked off second by Ortiz. Which is somewhat embarrassing for him - even if this is the new, lithe, svelte version of our ex-pitcher, not the one we know and loathe, who had all the speed and agility of a drugged-up sloth, swimming in treacle.

Speaking of the Huge Manatee...I'm somewhat relieved. Sure, we didn't get a hit, but look at the end result: Ortiz is yanked in the middle of an inning, walks three (including Eveland!) in only 2.1 frames, and allows two earned runs. Eye-witness reports appear to indicate there is indeed a TrimSpa Manatee in effect, with somewhat better velocity, but it doesn't seem he'll be bothering Brandon Webb as a Cy Young rival, despite his new diet:

Must be some new definition of "even out", of which I wasn't previously aware. But then, Russ probably thinks a well-balanced meal is a box of donuts in each hand. Shame he didn't experience this revelation when we were paying him $8m per season over the past couple of year. However, as long as he doesn't pitch better than any member of our rotation - and that's my expectation - dumping him was still wise. And 2004-05 levels of ineptitude seem eminently possible, if his new approach involves, as may be the case, avoiding hits by staying out of the strike-zone's zipcode, instead of grooving junk down the pipe.

Okay, so nobody has hit him in 5.1 innings this spring - but if he keeps handing out free passes at the rate seen today, they won't need to. Particularly if the bullpen behind him continues to surrender runs at such a brutal rate. Ortiz left with Arizona holding a slender 1-0 lead, but the Giants relievers tacked a further eight on in four innings. And that was rather better than Friday's outing against the Brewers, where they allowed sixteen in seven innings of work. Like I said, I'm almost as pleased by rival suckage as Arizona competence: this nine-run win was a happy purveyor of both.

Tension in D'backland? Interesting little slideshow over at AZCentral.com, which over pics 6-8 mentions "heated discussions" between Byrnes, Clark, Hudson and Hairston. Pic 8 is probably the scariest, illustrating nicely the point from a couple of days back, about why I would pay full attention if Clark was talking to me. Wonder if this was the incident, and Hairston the player, referred to in the interview, about him having to set the youngsters straight? At least it appears to predate our 'Free Scott Hairston' shirt escapades, or I might feel a bit guilty!

Nice piece in Beyond the Box Score, comparing Conor Jackson to young divisional 1B rivals, Adrian Gonzalez and James Loney. Author JM Barten reckons Jackson's upside remains very high: "If he does add some power, he could be a beast, posting very high OBP's as pitchers avoid grooving a pitch to him and he sits back and lets them give him a free pass. Edgar Martinez is what can happen when those factors converge." I think we'd settle for that. It does point out his defense is a bit questionable, but reckons he'll be okay in the long run. Chad Tracy not throwing balls that force Jackson into colliding with Price Fielder, would probably help there.

The Hardball Times have published their first annual season preview, and a fascinating read it makes, too. And I'm not just saying that because I contributed to the Diamondbacks section. :-) Some people will hate this, but they've gone out and projected batting, fielding and pitching stats for virtually every player of significance for the next three years. Of course, the accuracy of such predictions can certainly be argued - but I defy you to tell me you wouldn't love to peer into the crystal ball and see what's expected from our boys in 2009! The book can be downloaded for $9.95, or the printed version is available for $15.95 plus shipping. See here for more info.

Those taking part in our fantasy league should be especially interested, as it also contains articles about general fantasy baseball strategy and the top rookies to watch. And looks like we now have our league full, with twenty managers stepping up to the plate to take part. I'd especially like to welcome those, beyond the usual regulars, who delurked: dbacktom, revjdub44, mythcalbst, rg, whatuwant, Zephon, leemellon, Ridster, kalum and cavscout. Some of you I know from the DBBP, but you're all welcome. And now you've registered, why not stick around and post some more? - [Read more]

Finally! After a long, cold winter- or at least ‘baseball-less’, if not cold for you- we finally get a reprieve! Again, not from the cold, necessarily, but baseball, and specifically Diamondbacks baseball, has returned. And with a win, too! Today, our boys shook off some of the rust with a game against the [...] - [Read more]

Ladies and gentlemen, note where you’re seated today. Today, we may have seen the off-season move that will help our chances to win the division and make it back to the post-season in 2007. Today might be the day we look back at in October and think, “That was the turning point.” What’s so [...] - [Read more]

Randy Johnson will be re-introduced to the Arizona media today as a member of the Diamondbacks. Yesterday Johnson took and passed his physical. While everyone expected him to pass, some writers had speculated that RJ may not be ready for Opening Day after undergoing back surgery last October. But according to today’s [...] - [Read more]

Arizona GM Josh Byrnes confirmed a deal “in principal” was reached with the New York Yankees to bring starting pitcher Randy Johnson back to the Diamondbacks. According to the Arizona Republic the D-Backs will have to give-up reliever Luis Vizcaino along with three minor league prospects: infielder Alberto Gonzalez and pitchers Ross [...] - [Read more]

The USA Today is reporting that a trade between the Yankees and Diamondbacks that would bring starting pitcher Randy Johnson back to Arizona is a done-deal according to “a high-ranking Diamondbacks official familiar with the negotiations.” The teams have agreed that Arizona will send two minor league pitchers and a major league reliever [...] - [Read more]

Is that good news? Well, depends on what you think it means and what you think about the potential trade. Rumors abound, primarily centered around difficulties working out the financial issues behind the deal. There’s been no official word on the deal, so we’re still waiting for- well, for anything, really. - [Read more]

Off the Facade is saying that the deal is on for Randy Johnson to come back to Phoenix. According to the rumors they’re picking up there, we’ve got 72 hours to renegotiate with the Big Unit and we’ll be sending over two or three prospects. Might be a good idea to keep an [...] - [Read more]

Well, the Diamondbacks certainly seem to be taking an appropriate tact for the season. Naught seems to have been stirring lately, not even the mouse- currently, it looks like we’re falling out of the Mark Mulder chase. Looks like he’s getting better options from other sources, and he’ll be off to somewhere else. [...] - [Read more]

The Diamondbacks officially “lost” Miguel Batista when he agreed to a $24 million, 3-year contract with the Seattle Mariners. But Batista’s former employers are not losing much sleep over it. D-Back GM Josh Byrnes is crossing his fingers after making an official offer to free-agent pitcher Mark Mulder. Arizona never had any [...] - [Read more]

Well, another Diamondback heads out to join the Brewers, but not in a trade this time. Craig Counsell signed a two year deal to go back to the Brewers, with an option for 2009. I think we’ll all miss seeing Craig’s batting stance, but, with Stephen Drew taking the reigns at shortstop and [...] - [Read more]

- [Read more]

- [Read more]

- [Read more]