White Sox

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Blanton is an interesting pitcher.  As his charts show, he, seemingly, has no above average pitch.  He's got the lowest K rates across the board that I've seen so far and he survives in large part on smarts.  For example, check out his 1-0 counts, 2-0 counts and 2-1 counts against LHB.  Blanton is basically pitching backwards here.  Counts where he'd normally have to bring the fastball, you've got about a 50-50 shot on 1-0 and 2-0 and, on 2-1, it's only 1/3 fastballs.  The result, here, is that he is often able to get weakly hit outs (he's managed a ~ .100 ISO in '07 and '08 with the pitch) or, also importantly, yet another pitch in a more favorable count.  It's safe to say that the change is his most important pitch for getting lefties out.  And it mostly works.  BP's projected RHB/LHB split is .264/.319/.402 vs..271/.341/.410.  The difference in the projected walk rate is notable, but it hasn't come to fruition.

Against RHB, he's a fastball-curve-slider pitcher and it's all about his curve.  While the BABIP on pitches is going to take a while to come to rest at a reasonable rate, the ISO is no joke.  It's 0 so far and last year it was .143.  In other words, this is how Blanton gets his groundballs.  It isn't on his meh fastball, with a .247 ISO to RHB, nor is it on the slider, which has little going for it.  It's telling, I think, that he throws the slider for so few strikes and he's still giving up a .223 ISO on the pitch.  His confidence in the pitch is apparently low; the usage rate dips significantly once he gets into 2+ ball counts.  And it makes sense, it's a hittable pitch. That's usually not something you want to throw while behind.

So what's the approach?  For RHB, you must (MUST!) lay off the curve.  No good will come from swinging at it.  It's better to think of it as an outstanding sinker.  Unless it's elevated and you've seen it already and you as a hitter have some aptitude for hitting curves, don't touch it.  The fastball and slider, OTOH, are very hittable.  The key is to get the right one.  He doesn't nibble with the fastball and without the luxury of the changeup, it comes more or less undisguised. 

LHB have their work cut out.  The fastball is imminently crushable and if it's on the inner half, it's probably a fastball.  With a change up pitcher, I think it's best in the first time through to try to go the other way and cover the plate while seeing as many pitches as you can.  I think this is the best way to convince the opposing pitcher to try to get back inside and, hopefully, abandon the change a bit as a result.  For once (and this will no doubt screw him), I like AJ's chances.  He's great at going to the opposite field and his open stance, I think, allows him to recognize the change up better.  Thome has a chance to do well; he's already hit 3 HR on change ups this year.

Given the run scoring environment, I like our chances to put up a crooked number against Blanton.  He's a smart pitcher and should be fun to watch because of it, but he's the kind of guy who's going to thrive with Oakland's pitching-and-defense oriented team and ballpark.  Because of the sheer number of batted balls he allows, in the Cell, this is a backwards approach.  Lay off the curve and he's got plenty of pitches that White Sox hitters can put loft on.

 

Mark Buehrle (LHP) vs. Joe Blanton (RHP)

Time: 6:05 p.m. CT, TV: CSN, Radio: WSCR AM-670 (B-R preview, Live Boxscore; 2007 MLB Gameday; 2008 MLB Gameday 3D)

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GO SOX!

With a winning-streak-snapping loss to the A's, the White Sox are now 0-4 this season when their starter goes the distance, a statistic that seems about as unlikely as them going 0-4 in games in which they hit a grand slam.

The Sox remarkably poor performance in well-pitched games sent me searching B-R's Play Index to see what the record was for complete game losses. Not surprisingly, the Sox have no shot at setting the (retrosheet era) record. As Hawk would say, it's a changed game. They do, however, have an outside shot at making a run at the more modern wild card era record of 9 complete game losses held by the 1998 Mariners. Those Mariners had a special contribution from Jeff Fassero, who notched 6 complete game losses by himself. Only 3 teams have had more than Fassero's 6 since '98.

Unlike those Mariners, the Sox have spread their tough-luck losses around, with all 4 going to different starters. If I was John Danks, who already owns some of the worst run-support in the American League, I'd be nervous.

With the bullpen hurting--Bobby Jenks has a side or a non-throwing arm injury and Boone Logan has contracted a case of sporadic invisibility--Javier Vazquez was called upon to take one for the team, because, you know, the pen is only 7 men deep. Vazquez appeared to be up to the task early, striking out 7 of the first 9 he faced, but when the Sox offense was unable to capitalize on a 2 on, nobody out situation, Vazquez chose the wrong time to get a little wild. He hit Kurt Suzuki--what's Dony Lucy doin' these days--then threw Jack Cust a high do-nothing slider that went really high... and far. Vazquez had made two mistakes in the span of about a minute, and the Sox found themselves tied.

Another homer, the second Athletics hit of the game, by Donnie Murphy in the 5th put the A's up for good as the Sox were unable to mount yet another comeback against the AL ERA leader, and a guy who doesn't throw strikes.

Sox down 1...

Javier Vazquez (RHP) vs. Justin Duchscherer (RHP)

Time: 7:11 p.m. CT, TV: WCIU, Radio: WSCR AM-670 (B-R preview, Live Boxscore; 2007 MLB Gameday; 2008 MLB Gameday 3D)

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GO SOX!

Extra Innings...

Someone please post an alert on the current gamethread that there is a new gamethread open.

AJ and JD go deep! And now the game is tied...

Hooray! We get to face him one last time before Mark Shapiro bends to the avalanche of calls and swaps him out of the AL Central for good! Back to being late!

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CC is a long and well known enemy.  For Ozzie, he's one of those tip-your-hat aces that too often induces The Father of Oney to rhetorically and even sometimes managerially cede the game.  These are the supernatural that grace us with their presence.  Respect, evidently, is due.  Nonetheless, I feel inclined to examine Sabathia on my own and see what there is to see.  Not with the intent to call him anything less than quite good, though.  You just can't in good conscience do so.  The Large Lefty is legit.

He's got two plus off-speed pitches and plus velocity on the fastball.  I suspect he actually doesn't have plus movement:

 

Horiz. Vert. B% K% HR% BABIP 0-4 Below 35.9 45.6 0.53 .289 0-4 Above 34.9 49.8 0.48 .286 4-8 Below 35.8 43.7 0.64 .302 4-8 Above 35.8 48.2 0.58 .292 8-12 Below 35.6 41.4 0.54 .315 8-12 Above 36.5 45.6 0.58 .298

I'm pretty sure his fastball falls into the 4-8,Below group.  That's the one we want.  It's that fact combined with his consistent approach toward getting the first strike that makes Sabathia somewhat vulnerable.  Once you get Sabathia's fastball in play, good things happen.  The problem is that he makes you hit early in the count.  Unless he's missing with his fastball (which is very rare), batters rarely get in to the good late counts (2-0 and 3-1).  His offspeed stuff is fantastic, as he throws both for strikes at an above average rate and, despite that, consistently gets swing and misses from both LHB and RHB.  On top of that, they're difficult to put into play.  So RHB like Alexei and OC should have a good chance to do some damage today, but guys who like to work the counts, especially Jim Thome (b/c of the slider), Carlos Quentin (because of the change and the slider) and Swish (b/c he whiffs in late counts anyway).  You'll notice that the less power a Sox hitter has, for the most part, the more likely it is I pegged them for a bad game.  That's not good.  It would be nice if Crede could hit lefties or, for that matter, was in the lineup 

It's also going to be difficult to get Sabathia's pitch count up, since deep counts work to his advantage.  He'll probably outlast Contreras and give the Indians more quality innings, which more or less negates our bullpen advantage.  I don't like our chances a lot, especially since the conditions for HR hiting will be poor.  Considering the number of groundballs Sabathia induces and the probably poor hitting environment with CC factored in, you'll probably see a lot of intervention on Ozzie's behalf.  I suspect Alexei and OC will get some stolen base attempts and BA will be asked to bunt at some point, as wil AJ.  I don't think it will help, but at least it'll give the Talking Heads (the bad kind) more reason to bitch about fundamentals.

Oh, and here are two interesting graphs that have an interesting correlation in '08, but I'm not sure which is the cause and which the effect:

via www.fangraphs.com

via www.fangraphs.com

Jose Contreras (RHP) vs. C.C. Sabathia (LHP)

Time: 7:11 p.m. CT, TV: WCIU, Radio: WSCR AM-670 (B-R preview, Live Boxscore; 2007 MLB Gameday; 2008 MLB Gameday 3D)

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GO SOX!

The White Sox were one out away from losing yet another well pitched game thanks to the usual script; lack of hitting with RISP and an amzingly effective reliever giving up an inopportune extra-inning homer. And I was one out away from skipping this recap. A guy can't take a 5-day break, during which the Sox run off 5 in a row, including a sweep of the Cubs, and not expect to hear shit when the first thing he writes about is another late-inning loss.

Thankfully, we don't have to suffer that fate. Alexei Ramirez made sure of that.

The Cuban Missle, Slash, Necktie (whichever you prefer) put the Sox on his back, driving in all of their runs in the first 2:40 of the game. He put the Sox up in the second with a well struck sacrifice fly to center field, but his biggest shot was obviously the 2-out 10th inning HR off Indians closer Joe Borowski. Ramirez leaned on a fastball and hit a towering flyball to left field that barely cleared the fence to knot the game at 2 and save the Sox out of what looked like certain defeat.

Dewayne Wise followed with a pinch-hit single, a first-pitch stolen base, and scored the winning run on Orlando Cabrera's single, perhaps solidifying his roster spot as the Sox are reportedly shopping Juan Uribe (for some reason).

The heroics of Ramirez, Wise and Cabrera wouldn't have been necessary if the Sox could have put something together against Cliff Lee in his 8 innings of work, or if Matt Thornton, who has been incredible this year (save two 10th inning homeruns) didn't give up a bomb to Casey Blake. But Lee got a couple of double plays and escaped the Sox greatest threat having yielded just one run.

John Danks Doesn't Know How to Win

John Danks continues to lower his ERA. He now sits at a 3rd best in the AL at 2.50, yet he has only 5 wins to show for it. His 8 innings were a season high, and 8 strikeouts matched a career high. I can't help but think a veteran would have gone 9 and have at least 10 victories by now. Maybe we can trade Danks at the deadline.

Ozzie's Pen Management

Adam Russell got his first major league win by recording the final out of the 10th. There was some teeth nashing in the gamethread about Ozzie's decision to go with Thornton over Jenks to start the 10th, and truth be told, I would have been right at the forefront of that criticism if this was last year. But Thornton is having an amazing season, and I have no problem using him in that situation. It just didn't work out like Ozzie had hoped. Calling on Russell with two runners on in extra-innings of a 1-run game, however, seemed like a crazy decision. But this time Ozzie looked like a genius as Russell struck out the lone batter he faced to give the Sox a chance at a comeback.

Alexei's 10th inning HR ties it, OrCa drives in Dewayne to win it!

And the game is tied...

John Danks (RHP) vs. Cliff Lee (LHP)

Time: 7:11 p.m. CT, TV: CSN, Radio: WSCR AM-670 (B-R preview, Live Boxscore; 2007 MLB Gameday; 2008 MLB Gameday 3D)

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GO SOX!

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Cliff Lee has been a badass this year.  And he's more than respectable.  But he's not going to dominate hitters.  He's picked up the ability to get groundballs, which likely indicates a newfound cutter that isn't being picked up/marked properly in the pitch f/x.  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but he's throwing basically just a fastball to everyone.  And it doesn't go especially fast.  It does have above average rise which bodes well for results and BABIP, but he looks like a strike thrower to me.  There's no count where he throws fewer than 50% fastballs, even 0-2.  This is a guy who's trying to work quickly, get outs and move on to the next batter.  His K rate is within his career norms and his walk rate has plummeted.  That happens when you throw just 32.67% balls on fastballs to RHB and 22.90% to LHB.  If there's something new in his delivery that's allowing him to to sneak more apparent velo out of a seemingly average pitch, I'm not aware of it.  There's no reason a guy like this should be leading the AL in VORP.  Honestly, I'm not sure what's going on here.

As for the Sox plan of attack, AJ should be on the bench again, but I'm guessing he's not going to be sitting out two days in a row.  Really, we should be looking to drive the ball the other way in the first couple innings in order to set up fastballs on the inner half that we can drive.  If he's demonstrating good control AND we miss out on some BABIP luck, he's going to be able to go a long way and the Indian bullpen should be able to manage that.  Hopefully we're able to elevate some pitches.  It's a good matchup for Q since he lacks a slider and it's a good matchup for everyone else because his change ain't terrific.  I'm somewhat optimistic, to be honest.  The Rangers knocked him around and we're hitting pretty well at home right now.  So I guess we'll see.

 

Big Jim is feeling it! Swish is slamming!

Apparently it's good luck when I'm late.  That isn't what she said.

Okay, so Jeremy Sowers is just not good.  He also happens to be another one of those guys without too many pitches in Kalk's searchable database, too few to put it in the HUPGOOD.  I'm just going to put the relevant Kalk player card data in there.  It's just as well, as he isn't good enough to merit a thorough breakdown.  There's a reason that.  Paul Byrd has been replacement level this year, Westbrook is down for the year, Carmona hasn't had a start since 5/23. The Indians need starts.  So Sowers is getting thrown in the mix.  His sole skill appears to be shutting down lefthanded batters.  According to his BP card, his expected split:

• LHB - .254/.329/.393
• RHB - .290/.363/.468

They didn't just pull that out of nowhere.  This, in a nutshell, is pretty much what you need to know about Sowers.  He can get ground balls and poorly hit balls in general from lefties.  Against righties he gets utterly hammered and it led PECOTA to tab him as basically replacement level.  The only thing that would baffle us normally about Sowers is that he's somewhat unusual in that he's a soft-throwing lefty, but after tonight, the Sox hitters will have seen 3 of these sorts in the last 6 days.  In fact, we just faced Sean Marshall yesterday.  Sowers is basically Marshall without the good secondary stuff.  He pounds the zone with zone with his 87-90 fastball and hopes for the best from his defense.  At the Cell during the summer, that isn't going to play against a team that leads the AL in flyball/groundball ratio.  Beyond that, he's been giving up a ton of linedrives this year, to the tune of 26.7% of all batted balls.  Normally I'd say that's due to regress.  But the thing is, that only applies if he is in fact a major league caliber pitcher.  He may not be at this point.  Besides, it isn't like he'll suddenly start striking batters out.  Those batted balls will stay batted.  My guess is those line drives would turn into flyballs.  That won't exactly stem the tide. 

The Indians best hope is to get some luck, keep the run difference minimal through 5 and get into a bullpen war.  But that doesn't favor them either.  Obviously, this is baseball and anything can happen.  But it looks good for the Sox tonight as long as Gaving doesn't blow up.  So pray Gavin doesn't blow up.